Tight at the Bottom: The Best Bets for Premier League Relegation28th February 2019 / Julian
As the 2016/17 Premier League season moves into its final weeks it is looking increasingly more likely that Chelsea will emerge as Champions. Barring a major drop in form, the London team are simply running away with it having maintained a large points margin over their closest rivals. It looks like it’s going to be a fairly uninteresting finish to the season this time around, or is it?
If you were to look at the other end of the table, it is evident that there is still a lot to play for in the race avoid the drop. While Chelsea currently have a 10 point lead over Tottenham in second place, there is 10 points between seven teams at the bottom of the league. Not only does this make for some exciting six-pointer games and relegation scraps in the coming weeks, but it also makes for some interesting betting prospects for the punters.
When Sir Alex Ferguson first used the term “squeaky-bum time” it was to refer to the tense title race during the closing stages of the 2003 Premier League season. The term might not be applicable to this year’s race to be crowned champions, but it definitely can be applied to the fight for survival. And while there is plenty at stake for the clubs involved in the lower half of the league, there are also some stakes to be placed by the punters.
With 12 games to go in the season, Chelsea can be found at 1/7 odds to win the premier league which will turn just £14.29 profit from a £100 stake. After that, the next in line as far as favourites in the outright winner markets are concerned is Manchester City at 10/1, followed by Tottenham at 33/1 and Liverpool at 50/1. As you can see, there is such a huge difference in these odds that it is almost not worth considering placing a wager on who will be champions at this stage of the season.
If you have a look at the outright markets for relegation, it is a very different picture. Considering how closely the teams are bunched at the bottom of the league and the fact that there are three relegation places to fill, the difference between the odds are much tighter. The odds-on favourite at this stage of the season is Sunderland with odds available at 2/11 which will offer £18.18 profit from a £100 stake.
Already, you can see that wagering on the favourites to go down will provide more profit than placing a bet on the favourites to win. Indeed, there is more chance that Sunderland will escape relegation than there is of Chelsea not winning the league – they’re only 3 points from safety after all. The interesting thing about the market, however, is that there are at least seven teams, if not more, that are in contention to be in one of the three relegation spots. This makes for much more choice and potential betting value.
Here you can see all of the teams who could feasibly get relegated this season:
|Team||Best odds on the market (after 26 games)||Profit from a £100 stake|
If you fancy having a bet, head to our Best Bookmakers page beforehand.
As you can see, there are some tidy profits to had with teams who are closest to the relegation zone, such as Hull, Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace. If we were to write of Sunderland and dead and buried then it is perfectly feasible that at least two of these struggling teams join them in the bottom three at the end of the season.
It gets more intriguing when you look the other teams, with the likes of Swansea and Bournemouth far from being safe. Swansea have had a boost in form since new manager Paul Clement came in but can this confidence last until the end of the season? Bournemouth on the other hand are slipping perilously close to danger having not managed to win a game in 2017. At 7/1, backing the cherries to go down isn’t the worst idea in the world.
We have to admit that Burnley and Watford would be slightly ambitious picks for relegation this season and this is reflected by the 40/1 odds. Then again, stranger things have happened and both teams still need nine points to reach that all important 40 points tally. Can Burnley keep relying on their home form to get them over the line? Could Mauro Zarates cruciate ligament injury dent Watford’s attacking prowess?
Types of Relegation Bets
The odds shaping up nicely in the outright relegation markets, providing punters with plenty to think about. If you need anything else to ponder, then why not consider some of the other outright markets that relate to the bottom half of the Premier League table:
- To finish bottom: the odds for a team to be relegated tend to be shorter than the perceived probability since there are three relegation positions to fill. If you want to find longer odds then you could back a single team to finish in last place. For example, you can back Sunderland to finish bottom at odds of 1/1, which is significantly better than the 2/11 odds for them to be relegated.
- Relegation treble: another way to improve your potential return is to pick the three teams that you think will go down. If you think that there are two teams that are certain to go down, such as Sunderland and Hull, then you can add on a relative outsider such as Swansea to boost the odds to 16/1
- To stay up: if you play it right, there is a good opportunity to cover your losses in the relegation betting markets. Say you place a £100 bet on Sunderland to get relegated at 2/11 for potential profit of £18.18 only for them to lost their next game against a fellow relegation rival. The odds for Sunderland to go down will shorten even further but the odds for them to stay up will lengthen, perhaps to such a point that you could back them to stay up for a low enough stake and a high enough winning margin to ensure a profit no matter what the outcome.
Thinks to Keep in Mind
When it comes to betting on Premier League relegation, it is important to take a few things into consideration:
- Check the fixture lists: knowing a teams previous form going into the final games of the season is all good and well, but you also need to know who they still have to play. Great escapes happen almost every year in relegation battles, but rarely when a team has to play top teams who are playing for the title or Champions League qualification spot. Middlesbrough, for example, have quite a gruelling run in with matches against Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool in their last six games.
- Don’t let emotions get the better of you: football is an emotional game for so many people, especially when relegation is involved. We’re not saying that you shouldn’t bet in the relegation markets if a team close to your heart is involved, but it is vital that you don’t let it cloud your judgement. Even if you place a bet on your team to go down just to soften the blow, you could be needlessly throwing money away!
The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+
* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!
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