The interesting thing about this round of sixteen clash in the UEFA Champions League is that Porto have never lost against Italian side Roma. In fact, the Portuguese side won impressively on their last visit to the Stadio Olimpico. Read our Roma v Porto betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 10th, 2019 at 7:23 p.m.)
Roma finished second in their group in the Champions League this season. They took a W3 L3 record from their fixtures, the Italians finishing three points behind Real Madrid. Against Real Madrid, Roma suffered 3-0 and 2-0 defeats. The other defeat which they suffered in the group stage was on matchday six against Viktoria Plzen which means that the Italians have lost back to back games in the competition.
Roma were semi-finalists last season where they were beaten by Liverpool. Roma has returned a W3 L3 record in their previous round of sixteen ties in the Champions League. Last season at this stage they beat Shakhtar Donetsk, their second leg win in that tie snapping a five-match losing streak they were on round of sixteen matches. From six previous knockout ties against Portuguese sides, Roma are W3 L3. Their overall record against Portuguese teams is W5 D4 L2. Roma have won eight of their last 16 home matches in the UEFA Champions League (including qualifying).
There have been four previous matches between them
Porto hold a W2 D2 record against Roma
Porto won 3-0 on their last visit to the Stadio Olimpico
It was at this stage last season that Porto were knocked out of the Champions League. They were beaten 5-0 on aggregate by Liverpool. Proto have only managed the one win in their last five ties. They are back at this stage for the third season on the bounce now but have failed to get to the quarterfinals since the 2014/15 season. So it’s not been great from them at this stage of the competition, but they have a W5 L4 record in two-legged ties against Italian sides in Europe.
Porto knocked out Roma in the 1981/82 European Cup Winners’ Cup. The next time they met them they picked up a 4-1 aggregate win over the Italians in the 2016/17 Champions League playoffs. Currently, Porto are on a five-match unbeaten streak of form in the Champions League away from home (W2 D3). They have actually won only three of their last nine games on the road in Europe (D4 L2). They did produce some fantastic form in the group stage, winning their last five games in a row to finish top of their pile. With their sixteen points collected in their group stage games, Porto earned more points than any other team.
There is a bit of a temptation to have a look at Porto coming up with something in this one. They did really well in the group stage and may not be particularly phased by this trip to Rome. The +0.50 Asian Handicap on the visitors appeals which sees a payout as a win if they draw.
11th February 2019 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting
Juventus are the runaway leaders of the Serie A title race, holding an eight-point advantage at the top of the pile. They have yet to suffer a league defeat this season. It is Roma who are coming to challenge them in Turin on the weekend. Can the Old Lady keep their hot winning form going? Read our Juventus v Roma betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on December 19th, 2018 at 5:51 p.m.)
There was yet another win for Juventus last weekend as they collected a 1-0 success at Torino in the Italian top flight. That was their seventh straight victory. This season they have gone W15 D1 L0 in Serie A. Their one failure to win a league game this season was in a 1-1 home draw against Genoa back in October. This season in their home games they have averaged exactly two goals per game in the league. Only 38% of their league games in Turin have gone above 2.5 goals this season. That’s partly down to them only conceding four home goals this season.
Juventus have won 50% of their home games to nil and they have been leading at the half time break in five of their eight home fixtures (D3). They have posted a W7 D1 record in their eight home games this season. The Old Lady haven’t conceded a goal in any of their last five league games home and away combined. There are some obvious choices in the goalscorer markets. Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in four of Juve’s last five games. Seven of Juventus’s last nine league goals have been scored by either Ronaldo or Mario Mandzukic
Juventus took a 1-0 home win over Roma last season
Juventus have won their last three home games against Roma by a 1-0 scoreline
Roma have won just one of the last five league meetings (D1 L3)
Juventus are unbeaten in eight league home games against Roma
Juventus have a clean sheet in four of their last five home games against them
Roma beat Genoa 3-2 on home soil last weekend in the Italian top fight and that was a win that they needed. They were winless in three before that. Overall they have only gone W2 D4 L2 in their last eight Serie A games so have been struggling a bit. They have won just two games on their travels in the league as well (D3 L3). Roma have not won away at any side currently in the top half of the table. Across their away fixtures in the Italian top flight this season they have scored eight goals and have conceded nine. Just 25% of their away games have gone over 2.5 goals
Roma are winless in four road games (D3 L1) at the moment. Looking at their overall form home and away they haven’t taken a clean sheet in any of their last eight games. 67% of the goals that they have conceded on their travels have been in the second half of games. But as a positive, they are the fourth-top scorers in the league, but the bulk of those have been delivered at home. 72% of their league goals have been scored at home. Roma have opened the scoring in four of their eight road games
Juventus have been in tremendous form this season and Roma don’t look good enough to avoid defeat in Turin. Given the recent run of results that Juve have posted over them, a repeat 1-0 scoreline in Juve’s favour looks solid.
21st December 2018 / lee - Category: European Football Betting
The top spot in Champions League Group G is still up for grabs and Roma and Real Madrid are level on nine points. So whoever can bag themselves maximum points in this one is going to be in the driving seat going into matchday six. Actually Real Madrid win the group with a victory because of their head to head over Roma. Read our Roma v Real Madrid betting tips for more.
Real Madrid 23/20
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on November 26th, 2018 at 5:30 p.m.)
Roma really need to come up with a win in this game to stand their best chance of winning the group. They trail Real Madrid in the head to head after a 3-0 defeat at the Bernabeu, so if they lose, that’s top spot gone. Following their loss against Real Madrid Roma have gone three straight wins in the group, firing off ten goals in that sequence. Over 2.5 goals is at 8/15 odds* (betting odds taken on November 26th, 2018 at 8:16 pm). Roma collected a win in five of their six at the Stadio Olimpico in last season’s UEFA Champions League campaign (D1)
The Italians took five clean sheets in their first five home games of last season’s campaign. The Giallorossi have taken eight wins in their last 15 home games in the Champions League (including qualifying) losing four. They were on a four-match winless streak of home form against Spanish opposition before beating Barcelona last season. Still, their form against Spanish sides isn’t great a W2 D2 L7. Roma have failed to score in three of their last four home games against Real Madrid. Their current form is pretty strong with just two defeats in their last eleven in all competitions (W7 D2 L2). They are without a clean sheet in any of their last five though so both teams to score is at 4/9 odds* (betting odds taken on November 26th, 2018 at 8:16 pm).
This will be the 12th meeting between the two sides
Real Madrid are W7D1 L3 against Roma
Real Madrid have averaged two goals per game against Roma
Real Madrid are on a three-match winning streak against Roma
The Spaniards have a clean sheet in each of their last three against Roma
Real Madrid opened the campaign with a big win over Roma but suffered a shock defeat against CSKA Moscow on matchday two. They did respond though with back to back wins over Plzen to put themselves in a strong position. Santiago Solari took charge for the first time as the permanent manager on the weekend and Real Madrid were pounded 3-0 by Eibar, their first ever La Liga loss against them. Solari had won his four games in temporary charge, scoring fifteen goals in that sequence of games. Real Madrid have finished second in their last two group stage campaigns in the Champions League
In the correct score market the 1-1 draw is the shortest-priced option at 6/1 odds* (betting odds taken on November 26th, 2018 at 8:16 pm). Los Merengues have picked up a win in 12 of their last 20 European away games (D7 L1) and they were actually moving along well on a six-match winning streak against Italian sides before losing against Juventus in last season’s quarter finals. After failing to win eight visits to Italy, Real Madrid have won their last three trips there. Karim Benzema has five goals in his last seven appearances for the club and is at 11/10 in the anytime goalscorer market* (betting odds taken on November 26th, 2018 at 8:16 pm). Their overall record against Italian sides is W36 D11 L26. Real Madrid’s record in Italy is W7 D8 L18
Real Madrid looked backed to their sub-standard selves on the weekend in their loss against Eibar. Roma are a good strong home side and have plenty of scoring power and can get a revenge win in this one. Home win.
26th November 2018 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting
There is a good top seven showdown between Napoli and Roma on the weekend in Serie A. Napoli have been ticking over in fine form and will want to keep racking up the points in order to keep some pressure on leaders Juventus. Roma will be going into the game having had a three-match winning streak snapped. Read our Napoli v Roma betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on October 26th, 2018 at 1:21 p.m.)
Napoli find themselves still in second place in Serie A this season, as they look for some way to try and close the gap on leaders Juventus. Napoli have taken back to back clean sheet wins in the league after beating Udinese last weekend. Four of their last five wins in the league have actually been with a clean sheet as well. Napoli to win to nil is at 9/4 odds* (betting odds taken on October 26th, 2018 at 4:51 pm)
They have plenty of scoring power in them and Napoli have averaged over two goals per game at home this season while they have earned a clean sheet in three of their four on home soil. Both teams not to score is at 6/5 odds* (betting odds taken on October 26th, 2018 at 4:51 pm) for Sunday’s meeting with Roma. Of the goals that they have come up with on home soil, 78% of them have been in the second half of matches so far.
Napoli’s overall league form is W7 D0 L2 for the season and one of those defeats were against Juve. Carlo Ancelotti’s men have won all but one of their last nine league games at home in the top flight. Eight of their last ten games have produced over 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is at 4/6 odds* (betting odds taken on October 26th, 2018 at 4:51 pm) for this one. Lorenzo Insigne, who is on a three-match scoring streak at home in the league got a knock in the Champions League in midweek and is a doubt.
The two traded away wins in Serie A last season
Each of the last four meetings have produced an away win
Both teams have scored in three of the last four clashes
Napoli are winless in their last three home games against Roma (D1 L2)
Three of the last four meetings have gone over 2.5 goals
Roma had a three-match winning run snapped after they took a surprise home defeat against SPAL last weekend. Their away form this season is W2 L2 and this will be their first serious away test of the season. They have yet to face anyway currently in the top eight away from home this term. Both wins that Roma have taken on the road this season have been with a clean sheet.
Roma have scored four and have conceded four goals in their four away games. Three of their four away goals have come in the second half of matches. The half time draw is at 7/5 odds* (betting odds taken on October 26th, 2018 at 4:51 pm). Just one of their four road games have gone over 2.5 goals this season. However, largely based on their home form, only Napoli and Juventus have produced more league goals than Roma have done this season. The issue perhaps with them is at the back.
That is because of the current top seven sides in Serie A, Roma have the worst defensive record of them all. They have conceded a total of twelve goals in their nine league games this term. Former Manchester City striker Edin Dzeko has scored half of their away goals this season and is at 6/4 in the anytime goalscorer market* (betting odds taken on October 26th, 2018 at 4:51 pm)
We can see the strengths of Napoli coming through this test here. They have home advantage and superior scoring power to that of the visitors. The away form of Roma has not looked strong enough to cause an upset here. Home win.
27th October 2018 / lee - Category: European Football Betting
Real Madrid are the reigning European champions and will now have to launch their next title defense without Cristiano Ronaldo. They have made a decent start to their domestic campaign. Roma can be a tricky side to go up against but the Italians go to the Bernabeu as heavy underdogs for this group opener. Read our Real Madrid v Roma betting tips for more.
Real Madrid 1/3
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on September 15th, 2018 at 11:35 p.m.)
Three Champions League titles in a row then for Los Blancos. Not too shabby. But they are going to have to do it without Cristiano Ronaldo this time around. They have done alright on the domestic front really posting a W4 D1 record in their opening five games of the new La Liga season. They had to fight back from a goal down out at Athletic Bilbao on the weekend to settle for a draw. Isco got their equalizer and he looks like a great option in the anytime goalscorer market for this one at 11/8 which is the same price as can be taken on Marco Asensio* (Betting Odds were taken from September 15th, 2018 at 11:35 p.m.).
Their head coach Julen Lopetegui will be going into his first Champions League game with Real Madrid. Last season they surprisingly didn’t win their group as they were beaten to the punch by Tottenham. They will get something of a test in this one and even though there have been some cracks in their defence for our Real Madrid v Roma betting tips we are looking at Real Madrid to win to nil at 13/8 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from September 15th, 2018 at 11:35 p.m.). Real Madrid went W2 D1 in their three group stage games from last season.
Roma had that terrific run to the semi-finals last season of the Champions League where Liverpool got the better of them. They aren’t a side who have been travelling well in Europe as they have won just one of their last fifteen away games in Europe which is a terrible record. They have lost four of their last five on their travels as well and they conceded at least two goals in each of those defeats as well. In the bet365 correct score market, a Real Madrid 2-0 option is at 8/1 odds which we quite like the look of* (Betting Odds were taken from September 15th, 2018 at 11:35 p.m.).
Roma have posted a W1 D2 L1 record so far this season after playing out a 2-2 draw at home against Chievo in Serie A on the weekend. Their defence will be a concern though as they have shipped at least two goals in each of their last three games. That’s the last they need in going up against the reigning European champions. Their main goal-getter Edin Dzeko has just the one goal for the season which was in their season opener. This isn’t the most crucial of games as the rest of the group comprises of CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzen. A draw would be a decent return for the Italians.
These two were most recently together in the 2016 Champions League with Real Madrid taking a 4-0 aggregate win in their tie. From their previous Champions League meetings, Real Madrid hold a W6 D1 L3 record against the Italians. Surprisingly their home record at the Bernabeu is W2 D1 L2 against Roma.
We are backing the home side to get the job done and bank a clean sheet in the process as well. They have played some strongly efficient stuff on the domestic front and we can see that translating over. Real Madrid to win to win to nil
17th September 2018 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting
AC Milan thought that they were heading for a solid three points in their Serie A opener as they had a strong league over Napoli. However, it all fell apart from them and they ended up suffering a defeat. This is their first home game of the season as they get another tough one. Roma have bagged four points from their opening two games of the season and will be competitive at the San Siro. Read our AC Milan v Roma betting tips for more.
AC Milan 11/8
* (Betting Odds were taken from August 28th, 2018 at 2:13 a.m.)
Milan opened up a 2-0 lead over Napoli just after half time in their first match of the son and they looked on course for a great three points. However, it all came unravelled as Napoli powered their way back to a 3-2 success. So that was a big blow for Milan who have to go again in another tough fixture on the weekend. AC Milan suffered just the four home defeats last season but three of those were against their fellow top-seven finishers so they didn’t deliver well at all in their big home games.
They only posted a W2 D3 L1 record in their last six home games at the San Siro as well. This is going to be a big battle for them on the weekend and we are just going to look over 2.5 goals at 4/5 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from August 28th, 2018 at 2:01 a.m.) as on the evidence of last week, the Milanese defence needs to get itself back into shape.
Roma will carry an attacking threat as they have picked up four points from their opening two games of the season, scoring four goals so far. They opened with a 1-0 win at Torino and then were involved in a thrilling 3-3 draw against Atalanta. Serie A isn’t a boring place anymore. Of the two Milan probably carry the better firepower it has to be said but Roma have Edin Dzeko who is a decent anytime goalscorer option for the fixture.
Both teams to score is at 8/13 odds for the fixture* (Betting Odds were taken from August 28th, 2018 at 2:01 a.m.) and that appeals a lot in our AC Milan v Roma betting tips. Last season Roma posted a fantastic away record of W12 D6 L1 in the Italian top flight with their only road defeat coming against Juventus.
They shipped just the nine goals in their nineteen away games as well so they are certainly no pushover and cane made a good run at the three points themselves in this one. Roma have won eight to their last 10 away games and are on a three-match away winning streak against Milan.
Surprisingly each of the last three fixtures between these two have produced an away win and four of the last five have gone that way too. So there’s a bit of a trend. Milan and Roma traded 2-0 away wins in Serie A last season. Roma are actually on a three-match winning streak in the league at the San Siro, scoring at least two goals on each of those trips
AC Milan will have been shell-shocked after that loss last time out against Napoli having gotten themselves in a good position. Roma will be a threat and the trend is certainly there to warrant backing the visitors to get the win. Roma to win is our AC Milan v Roma betting tip.
29th August 2018 / lee - Category: European Football Betting
Serie A, which was no doubt the most exciting of the big five leagues in terms of title-drama and the scrap for European places, gets elevated this season. That is because of the arrival of a certain Cristiano Ronaldo who made a big money move to Juventus in the summer. What will that mean for the league? Will it mean that Juventus are a foregone conclusion to go and win what would be their eighth straight Scudetto?
Napoli threw down a huge challenge to the Old Lady last season, pushing them all the way to the penultimate round of matches. They have a new boss in Carlo Ancelotti to try and close the gap even more and the arrival of Ronaldo in Turin could even drive everyone else to find that extra level of quality this season. Still, even with that said, Juventus are the 2/5 outright favourites to win Serie A 2018/19 outright with bet365* (betting odds taken on August 17th, 2018 at 7:18 pm)
Inter Milan 5/1
AC Milan 16/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on August 17th, 2018 at 7:18 pm)
Juventus were sweating for a lot of last season as their grip on the league title looked to slipping away and going to Napoli. But the experience got them over the line in the end for their seventh straight title. It has been a procession in the league at times for them, but not last season and you wonder if anyone can close the door a little bit. However, in getting CR7 they showed that they are not going to rest on their laurels after the stresses of last term. Leonardo Bonucci has made his way back to the club and they got Emre Can from Liverpool no a free transfer as well. Douglas Costa joined them at the end of June.
Gonzalo Higuain has been the casualty of the Ronaldo transfer as he has been shipped out on loan to AC Milan and Juve have had big money sales of Mattia Caldara and Rolando Mandragora. They will also be without goalkeeping legend Gianluigi Buffon as well as he moved on to PSG. Ronaldo is going to show up and deliver goals for the Old Lady and he is the 4/6 odds-on favourite to finish as the Serie A top goal corner this season* (betting odds taken on August 17th, 2018 at 7:18 pm).
The quality of their squad is enviable. However, with Ronaldo there now you can only assume that their real target is the UEFA Champions League. That is their ultimate goal and therefore, will that detract them a bit from landing yet another Scudetto? They have a savvy hand at the helm in Massimiliano Allegri but when you look at their starting eleven, the core of it is not a young. Clearly, they are not too worried about the future. It’s about earning that success right now, at home and in Europe.
Inter are being backed to move up into closer contention to competing with Juventus in the Serie A title race. They did get a top-four finish which put them back into the Champions League next season. That came through a dramatic finish thanks to a late goal from Matias Vecino against Lazio on the final day of the season. They have been improving their squad over the summer, and that has been necessary because of their Champions League ambitions as well as domestic ones. Inter Milan made a big swoop for Radja Nainggolan in the summer and he rejoins former coach Luciano Spalletti. They have also drafted in Kwadwo Asamoah and Stefan de Vrij along with other pieces to bolster their squad.
Last season they went undefeated in the top flight through to November. So that was a strong start that they posted. It was still that tight scrap at the end though as the top five in Serie A was really tight and competitive last season. While Inter were strong at the back last season, their goalscoring feats were nowhere as strong as that of Juventus, Napoli and Lazio. So they will be looking for more out of their attack and therefore it will be important for them to hold on to their main goal-getter Mauro Icardi. Icardi is the 11/2 second favourite in the Serie A top goalscorer market* (betting odds taken on August 17th, 2018 at 7:18 pm). They will take plenty of backing in the Without Juventus market. At this stage he is irreplacable.
After they lost Maurizio Sarri to Chelsea in the summer, the replacement is the experienced hand of Carlo Ancelotti. It was a great effort from Napoli in the title hunt, getting under the skin of Juventus and taking the title race to the penultimate games of the season. Ancelotti, of course, is a proven winner, however, they haven’t been that active in the transfer market. Ancelotti would have expected to attract familiar faces such as Karim Benzema but it hasn’t happened. So they will be setting up much as they did last season with the proven quality in their rankings of the likes of Dries Mertens, Marek Hamsik and Arkadiusz Milik. We expect them to be as strong and as organised as they were last term. Like the others in the title race, they will have to juggle Champions League duties though.
It was a third-place finish for Roma in last season’s Serie A and they moved out Radja Nainggolan and goalkeeper Alisson over the summer in big transfers. Head coach Eusebio Di Francesco is a man who likes to turn towards the development of youth and Roma have invested heavily in that department. It’s not something that is immediately going to be paying off for them, however, they will be shooting for a top-four place. They have relied on not so much individual star power as a strong collective. Edin Dzeko is their main man up front but is likely going to have share duties with Patrik Schick. Their big summer signing was midfielder Javier Pastore who is going to charge with making them tick.
We don’t see AC Milan or Lazio getting close enough to realistically mount a Scudetto challenge this season. Milan did take advantage of the Juventus summer spending by getting in Gonzalo Higuain on loan with an option to buy at the end of the season. They look as if they need at least another season together. Lazio had plenty of goals in them last season through Ciro Immobile who had a cracking season, but they are nowhere near as strong defensively as those around them. It would be a Leicester-esque upset if either of these won the title.
Cristiano Ronaldo 4/6
Mauro Icardi 11/2
Gonzalo Higuain 8/12
Ciro Immobile 12/1
Edin Dzeko 14/1
Dries Mertens 25/
Paulo Dybala 33/1
Andreas Belotti 40/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on August 17th, 2018 at 7:18 pm)
We just can’t look past Juventus with the addition of Cristiano Ronaldo, although he will probably be conserved for a serious Champions League tilt this season. They could be highly focused on that front because frankly, while he is there, there is going to be no better time than in the next couple of seasons for them to be crowned European Champions. They have the strength in depth to cope.
Last season Roma looked solid and we expect them to be the same way this season. They aren’t likely to be as focused on Europe and therefore we are going to tip them to battle their way into the runners-up spot.
Carlo Ancelotti will add a lot to Napoli but it’s a big transition for them after going so well under Sarri. The improving Inter Milan should land a top-four finish and we are hoping for another close top-four battle this season in the Scudetto.
18th August 2018 / lee - Category: European Football Betting
Tottenham make their introduction into the International Champions Cup in midweek as they take on Italian side Roma. Once again it has been quiet in the summer from Tottenham in the transfer market and most of their World Cup stars will be on a break for this game which is being played out in San Diego.
* (Betting Odds were taken on July 22nd, 2018 at 4:51 p.m.)
Roma was involved in one of the big summer transfers as they sold keeper Alisson to Liverpool. That was a big chunk of money for the club that they couldn’t turn down and to be fair, the Brazilian didn’t have a great World Cup. There are reports that the Italians are going after Arsenal’s Petr Cech as a replacement. The influx of money could spark some transfers for the Italians who finished third in Serie A last season and were defensively very sound. This is just meaningless summer action, giving teams a chance to look at youth and squad depth and of course to start driving home a bit of match sharpness. We can’t see a lot of goals flowing around in his one and we are looking under 2.5 goals at 13/10 odds with bet365* (Betting Odds were taken on July 22nd, 2018 at 4:51 p.m.). Following this opener against Spurs in the International Champions Cup, Roma will then be taking on Spanish giants Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Spurs will keep their stars who appeared in the World Cup on the backburner of course over the summer, especially for this opening game in the International Champions Cup. It is a good chance for boss Mauricio Pochettino to assess his backup options. Spurs look as if they are going to potentially be sellers more than buyers this season although they could use a boost up front as a backup to Harry Kane. We don’t really know what is coming from Spurs in terms of quality at the International Champions Cup and we are going with both teams not to score at 7/4 odds* (Betting Odds were taken on July 22nd, 2018 at 4:51 p.m.) because of that. While they haven’t been active in the transfer market so far, they have locked down Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Erik Lamela to new contracts. This is the first preseason action that Spurs are heading into. Don’t expect to see too many stars. Don’t expect to see a tremendous amount of quality and over-exertion in this fixture. Spurs will meet Barcelona and then Milan in the International Champions Cup.
Tottenham and Roma haven’t met each other before.
How are you really supposed to predict a game like this? Punters really have no perception over the degree of quality at the clubs beyond the main starting elevens that would be starting competitive games. So we are simply sticking with an option for the game ending under 2.5 goals.
23rd July 2018 / lee - Category: European Football Betting
Liverpool have one foot in the final of the Champions League this season now after their exhilarating 5-2 home win over Roma last weekend. It was another brilliant show of attacking power that they produce and they had the Italians at sixes and sevens. But in the last round Roma pulled off one of the greatest Champions League comebacks to knockout Barcelona. Can they haul themselves back into this tie?
Roma 29/20, Liverpool 17/10, Draw 11/4* (Betting Odds taken at 02:45 a.m. on April 26th, 2018)
Roma have big ground to make up as they are 5-2 down from their trip to Anfield. However, in the last round, they had to find three goals to overturn a 4-1 deficit against Barcelona and they did exactly that with a stunning and rousing performance. Just to put hat comeback into context it was the joint second largest first-leg deficit to be overturned in the UEFA Champions League. This is only the second European Cup semi-final that Roma have been involved in, the Giallorossi winning their previous one (against Dundee United) before losing to Liverpool in the final of the 1984 European Cup. So do Roma have enough about them to launch yet another come back? Let’s not forget that in the round of sixteen they had to fight back against Shakhtar Donetsk having lost the first leg away from home. The Italians have already beaten English opposition at home this season, getting a big 3-0 win over Chelsea in the group stage. In the bet365 correct score market, the 1-1 draw is the shortest-priced option at 7/1 while a Roma 3-1 which would be enough to get them through on away goals is at 16/1 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 7:45 p.m. on April 26th, 2018).
Just how important are those two late away goals that they scored in the first leg going to end up being? Roma’s record at home to English clubs is W9 D3 L4 and the Giallorossi have won four of their last five home games against Premier League sides so they have a decent track record. Overall though their Champions League record isn’t great as they have won just six of their last 26 games in the competition (D8 L12) but have won five of their last ten. They have actually not conceded yet at home in this season’s competition but the way Liverpool tore them open in the first leg, both teams to score lokos a decent proposition for 4/11 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 7:45 p.m. on April 26th, 2018). Former Manchester City man Edin Dzeko has come up with some massively important goals for Roma this season and a big performance from him is going to be so crucial for the chances of the Italians. The Italians have won just five of their last twelve European home matches, the last two have been impressive responses though.
Liverpool hold a W7 D2 record from previous European Cup semi final appearances. They are on the brink of success now in this one. At Anfield, Roma looked as if they were containing the Reds well for the first twenty minutes, but then Liverpool found their footing and thanks to another star-studded show from Mo Salah, the Reds ran riot. Mo Salah will take plenty of backing in the bet365 anytime goalscorer market after he tormented his former club. Now they have a big advantage on the board and it’s not unreasonable to think that they can get more, especially if Roma press forward. The Reds hold a W10 D5 L11 record against Italian sides and their overall record in two-legged knockout ties against Italian clubs in UEFA competition is won four, lost two (winning the last two). They have a pretty decent record in Italy though as they have lost just one for their last seven away games in Italy, winning three of those.
Liverpool have produced plenty of goals in the competition this season, thumping Maribor 7-0, winning 5-0 at Porto and putting five goals past Man City in their quarter-final tussle. Over 3.5 goals at bet365 is at even money odds* (Betting Odds taken at 7:45 p.m. on April 26th, 2018). Liverpool have suffered just the one loss in their last thirteen away games in Europe now but overall have won just five of their last eighteen on the road (four of six his season). Liverpool have triumphed in 30 UEFA competition ties when they have won the home first leg and have lost just five those situations. Five times before Liverpool have won the first leg of a tie by a three-goal margin at home and they have won through on each of those occasions. Liverpool holds a W3 L1 record in European penalty shoot outs. There is not going to be a lot of reason to panic for Liverpool even if they concede first. They have the quality on the break to pick off a Roma defence which looked pretty vulnerable in that first leg.
The first time Liverpool and Roma met was at the Stadio Olimpico on the 1984 European Cup Final which Liverpool won on penalties. Their next meeting was in the fourth round of the 2001 UEFA Cup When the two of them traded away wins, with Liverpool winning through on aggregate. Then they were together the following season in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League with a draw in Rome and a home win for the Reds at Anfield. Then there was this season’s first leg meeting at Anfield which Liverpool won 5-2. Both teams have scored in just two of the previous six meetings.
This is done. Roma just had no way to live with Liverpool after the first twenty minutes of the first leg. Liverpool are not likely to let this advantage slip all the way even though they know at some point they will come under pressure. They will know that they can pick off the Italians at will on the counter if need be. Away win.
30th April 2018 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting
After their tremendous job against Manchester City in the quarter finals, Liverpool will look to make the most of home advantage in the first leg of their semi-final tie against Roma. Liverpool have already proven that they have the firepower to destroy defences, so will Roma be able to produce a defensive display good enough to withstand the Reds’ pressure? The Italians produced a stunning fightback to knockout Barcelona in the last round though and that will be in the back of the minds of the Reds.
Liverpool 1/2, Draw 10/3, Roma 11/2* (Betting Odds taken at 3:24 p.m. on April 20th, 2018)
The Reds have such a great record from previous European Cup semi-final appearances, winning seven of their previous nine. They did suffer a loss in their last one though which was against Chelsea in the 2007/08 season. But after a decade away they are back in the final four and face up to Roma. Liverpool hold a W4 L2 record in two-legged knockout ties against Italian opposition in Europe, winning the last two. Liverpool are behind W9 D5 L11 in previous individual matches against Italian opposition though. This will be their first meeting with a Serie A side since a 2012/13 UEFA Europa League meeting with Udinese when the two of produced respective home wins. Liverpool’s home record against Italian opposition is W6 D0 L4, losing two of their last three at Anfield.
Liverpool have shown strength in attack this season and over 2.5 goals at bet365 is at 4/7 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 3:24 p.m. on April 20th, 2018) which will appeal to punters. Liverpool remain unbeaten at Anfield this season in Europe after producing a W2 D1 record in the group stage, before confident and big wins on home soil against Porto and then Man City in the knockout stages. Liverpool will once again be looking towards Mo Salah to deliver the goods as he goes up against the side who sold him to Liverpool in the summer. Liverpool have only suffered the one home defeat all season at Anfield across all options (W16 D8) and they hit the back of the net in all but three of those. They know they aren’t going to get an easy game in Rome, can they give themselves a nice cushion ahead of that?
Roma produced one of the all-time classic comebacks of Champions League history with a 3-0 success against Barcelona in the second leg of their quarter-final duel. That was after a heavy 4-1 loss at the Nou Camp. At the centre of their revival with important goals was Edin Dzeko and is the main anytime goalscorer option for the visitors. In the correct score market at bet365 a Liverpool 2/1 jointly with a 1-1 draw, are the shortest-priced options at 7/1* (Betting Odds taken at 3:24 p.m. on April 20th, 2018). Roma have only been to one previous European Cup semi-finals, which was in 1983/84 against Dundee United. The Italians prevailed on that occasion. Their form against English sides isn’t great because after winning their first three two-legged sides against English opponents, they have lost each of the last six. They have been to England this season already, playing out a 3-3 draw at Chelsea in the group stage.
Roma have produced only the one win in their last 16 games in England (D6 L9). Their only victory in England being at Liverpool in their 2000/01 UEFA Cup tie. In the round of sixteen Rome fought back from having lost the first leg away from home against Shakhtar Donetsk, the same as they did against Barcelona in the quarter finals. So they have a lot of spirit and a lot of character and even if they don’t come out on top at Anfield, they won’t be out of the tie. Both teams to score in the first leg is at 4/9 odds with bet365* (Betting Odds taken at 3:24 p.m. on April 20th, 2018). The Giallorossi have only won six of their last 25 Champions League games (D8 L11) but have won five of their last nine. There is no shortage of self belief there, clearly.
The most famous of the five previous meetings between Liverpool and Roma was their first one, the 1984 European Cup Final, which was the first ever to go to a penalty shoot out. Liverpool won that. Their next meeting was in the 2000/01 UEFA Cup fourth round, with Liverpool taking a 2-0 lead in Rome, before losing 1-0 back at home. Liverpool went on to win the tournament that season. They were then paired up in the 2001/02 UEFA Champions League second group stage with a 0-0 draw in Rome and a 2-0 win for Liverpool back at Anfield.
You know what you are going to get from Liverpool. They have only a Plan A and that’s it. While that works for them clearly, it will leave them a little exposed at the back and Roma are good enough to get themselves on the scoresheet. Home win and both teams to score.
22nd April 2018 / lee - Category: UEFA Champions League Betting