It is the second leg of the Championship play-off in midweek and Villa will be looking to press home their advantage. They struck a 1-0 win at the Riverside with a goal early in the game and pretty much stifled the threat of Boro. So now Middlesbrough’s route to the Championship play-off finals looks pretty tough. They will certainly have to find more of a cutting edge than they did in the first leg that is for sure.
Aston Villa 5/4, Draw 23/10, Middlesbrough 13/5* (betting odds taken on May 13th, 2018 at 9:02 p.m.)
A goal in the fifteenth minute from Mike Jedinak has given Aston Villa a solid advantage in this tie. The first leg at the Riverside was a bit short of goalmouth action and part of that is because Villa did a good job in nullifying the main threat of Boro’s Adama Traore and the Boro attack in general. Villa finished seven points above Boro at the end of the regular season and they were well in control in that first leg and never really looked in trouble in the match. Their home from across the course of the season was W14 D7 L2 and they finished the regular season with a four-match undefeated streak at Villa Park. They were defensively solid conceding an average of just 0.8 goals per game and under 2.5 goals at bet365 is at 8/15 odds* (betting odds taken on May 13th, 2018 at 9:02 p.m.). Villa took a clean sheet in 43% of their home games in the regular season and they didn’t lose a single game at home against a top half of the table finisher, so they are going to be hard to take down in this one. In the bet365 correct score market a Villa 1-0 is at 5/1 odds* (betting odds taken on May 13th, 2018 at 9:02 p.m.).
Boro went W8 D7 L8 for the season away from home in the Championship and they won just one of their last five on the road (D3 L1). So not the greatest of road form and you got the feeling going into this one that they needed to gain some sort of footing in the first leg at home. Boro only went D2 L2 in their four away games at the top four finishers in the league this season, so they may not have enough to turn this around. Actually, they only won two games away from home against sides in the top fourteen. Boro were on good scoring form down the final stretch of the season as they scored exactly two goals in each of their last four games, but there was no sign of that potency in the first leg. Both teams not to score is at even money odds* (betting odds taken on May 13th, 2018 at 9:02 p.m.). Middlesbrough were losing at half time in 13 of their 23 road games but they didn’t do too badly in front of goal with an average of 1.5 goals per game and they are on a seven-match scoring streak away from home. The problem is is that they haven’t taken a clean sheet in any of their last five away from the Riverside.
This is now the fifth meeting between the two clubs this season and Villa are 2-1 up with the one drawn game. In the two meetings at Villa Park, there was a 0-0 played out between Villa and Boro in the league meeting before Boro took a 2-0 EFL Cup win there. Both teams have failed to score in the four other games this season and each of the last five matches between the two clubs have failed to get over 2.5 goals. Villa are actually winless in their last six home games against Boro (D3 L3).
Aston Villa have a good advantage for themselves in this tie now and they looked back to full strength and well in control of this tie. Boro were unusually quiet in the first leg but that was largely down to how well Villa did in snuffing out their threat. Home win to nil.
14th May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
The Cottagers have some work to do now in this tie after losing 1-0 at Pride Park on Friday in the first leg of this Championship play-off tie. That was another blow for them after losing on the final day of the season, missing their chance at automatic promotion. Derby have a lead but they will know that they are going to come under some heavy pressure out at Craven Cottage. Can they hang in there? Away goals DO NOT count in the play offs.
Fulham 4/6, Draw 5/2, Derby 9/2* (Betting Odds taken at 10:57 p.m. on May 11th, 2018)
Fulham produced a wonderful season at home during the regular season going W13 D8 L2. Even though they are down in this tie their home form gives them plenty to be confident about still in getting this turned around. Fulham are unbeaten in their last fifteen home games and netted in each game in that sequence. The Cottagers averaged 1.7 goals per home game and only the Champions Wolves produced more league goals than the London club did in the Championship. But what of their confidence? They lost at Birmingham on the final day of the season which saw them miss automatic promotion and then there was their 1-0 loss at Pride Park against Derby on Friday. Fulham did get chances in that first leg and had Derby under big pressure early only. They couldn’t make a breakthrough though and just 35% of Fulham’s home games this season produced more than two goals so under 2.5 goals is at 17/20 odds with bet365* (betting odds taken at 10:38 p.m. on May 11th, 2018). Fulham netted 60% of their goals at home this season after the half time break and they do pose a huge attacking threat through the likes of Ryan Sessegnon and Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Cottagers were on a 24 match scoring streak in league action, a run which was snapped against Derby on Friday. No doubt they have the firepower to snap back.
Derby’s chances in this time were always likely to hang on what they could come up with on home soil in the first leg. Well, they got themselves head with a 1-0 lead and now they have the tough job of defending that lead away from home. But to their credit, they have just come good at the right time going unbeaten in their last four games now (W2 D2). However, they aren’t in great away form though with just the one win in their last nine road games (D5 L3). Of their four away games against the top four finishers during the season, Derby only went D3 L1 so they didn’t get a win at a top club. In the bet365 correct score market the shortest priced option is a Fulham 1-0 at 6/1 odds* (betting odds taken at 10:38 p.m. on May 11th, 2018). Derby’s overall record on the road was W8 D10 L5 for the season and they averaged 1.25 goals per game on their travels. They do have a decent defence and it was really on point in that first leg when it was under immense pressure at both ends of the game. Their 1-0 win on Friday night snapped a six-match sequence of no clean sheets for them. They have just the two clean sheets in their last eight away games though.
Derby have now suffered only the one defeat in their last even games against Fulham now. While Fulham did take a league win at Pride Park, there was a 1-1 draw between them at Craven Cottage during the regular season. Both teams have scored in five of the last six matches now and the last three between them at Craven Cottage have all ended in drawn games. Fulham though are undefeated in their last seven league home games against the Rams.
Fulham have had some setbacks lately however they have a good chance of getting back into this because they are a major attacking force as they have proven time and time again. They have enough to shake themselves off and post a win to get through. Fulham to win to nil.
12th May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
The Champions Play Off semi final duels begin on Friday night. There is one more place up for grabs in next season’s Premier League and the winner of this tie will face either Middlesbrough or Aston Villa in the Final. Fulham missed a chance to earn automatic promotion on the weekend as they lost their unbeaten streak. Derby improved at the end of the season and they get home advantage in the first leg. The second leg will be held on Monday, May 14th.
Fulham 3/10, Derby 12/5* (Betting Odds taken at 2:23 a.m. on May 8th, 2018)
The Rams secured a 4-1 home win over Barnsley on the final day of the season to guarantee their place in the play offs. They held down sixth place with that and after a three-match losing streak which put their play off chances in jeopardy, they finished W2 D1 with both of those wins at home. The Rams have won three of their last four at Pride Park now (L1) so they do have a bit of home form behind them and they are going to need to make the most of that in this first leg. Across the regular season, Derby went W12 D5 L6 at home averaging 1.8 goals per game and they conceded under a goal per game on average so that was very good. They have scored in each of their last nine games at home and each of their last seven there have produced at least three goals. Over 2.5 goals at bet365 is at even money odds* (Betting Odds taken at 6:33 p.m. on May 8th, 2018) for the first leg of this play off tussle. Derby took a clean sheet in 48% of their homes across the season and they were leading at half time in seven of them. The big concern at the moment for them though is that haven’t earned a clean sheet in any of their last six games home and away combined and Fulham have one of the most prolific attacks around.
So near and yet so far for Fulham. With second-placed Cardiff only drawing on the final weekend, the door was open for Fulham to grab automatic promotion. They were on a 23 match undefeated streak of form and were visiting Birmingham who weren’t clear of relegation. But the Cottagers tanked to a 3-1 loss meaning that they missed their shot at getting up to the Premier League in the automatic places. But they have a second bite of the cherry. The loss at Birmingham last weekend snapped a tremendous five match winning streak that Fulham were on away from home so it was just such a surprising result to see them blow their lines. Overall Fulham went W12 D5 L6 for the season on their travels and they scored an average of 1.7 goals per game. They did only take a clean sheet in 26% of their away games so both teams to score at bet365 is a good option at 8/11 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 6:33 p.m. on May 8th, 2018). Fulham will no doubt be very strong back on home soil at Craven Cottage for the second leg. The Cottagers have scored in each of their last twelve league away games and they scored 64% of their away goals in the second half of matches.
Fulham came out on top from the two league meetings this season. After a 1-1 draw between them at Craven Cottage, Fulham banked a 2-1 win at Pride Park. From the eight previous Championship meetings between them, Derby are W3 D3 L2 so are slightly up. Derby have won three of their last four home games against the cottages. Both teams have scored in each of the last five meetings.
Fulham 3/10, Derby 12/5* (Betting Odds taken at 2:23 a.m. on May 8th, 2018)
This first leg is probably going to be a little cagey. Derby did well to pull themselves together at Pride Park at the end of the season. However, Fulham are still an immensely strong side despite their blip on the final day of the regular season and could will hold out for a draw and take their chances back on home soil.
9th May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
Boro produced a strong finish to the end of the regular season to lock down a top-six finish and they will be a threat in this tie even though they are underdogs to qualify. They have been producing very strong form at the Riverside and will want to take their chances in the first leg on home soil. Aston Villa finished seven points above them but the Villains have been struggling a bit for positive form away from home. The second leg will be played on May 15th and the winner will play the winner of the Derby v Fulham tie.
Middlesbrough 6/5, Draw 11/5, Aston Villa 12/5* (Betting Odds taken at 2:23 a.m. on May 8th, 2018)
Boro have had a good end of season run with a W3 D1 record in their last four played, holding their nerve together well. They have scored exactly two goals in five of their last six games played so are flowing well up front. At the Riverside, they have won each of their last three games and seven of their last eight there. So they should be a force to be reckoned with in this one and in the bet365 correct score market a Middlesbrough 1-0 option is at 5/1 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 6:33 p.m. on May 8th, 2018). They know that they will be in for a tough away game after this so they have to press home their advantage at the Riverside. Boro have scored in each of their last eight home and at least two in each of their last three there. Overall home and away combined they are on a fourteen match scoring streak. So they have scoring power behind them and defensively they have done well at home too having conceded just 0.74 goals per game on average across the season. Just 39% of their home games made it over the 2.5 goal line and this should be tight.
Villa haven’t quite been at the races, not the road lately. They did manage to hold down fourth place in the league, but they are just W1 D1 L3 in their last five road games. They are a very strong home side though so anything that they can get out of this will enhance their chances in the second leg. Villa returned an average of 1.3 goals per game away from home across the seasons while they conceded an average of a goal per game. In eight of their road games during the season Aston Villa were 0-0 at half time which doesn’t look a bad punt in this one. Overall they were level at half-time in 10 of their 23 away games. They may see this as a test of survival more than anything and both teams not to score with bet365 is at 8/11 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 6:33 p.m. on May 8th, 2018). Their overall away form for the season reads W10 D4 L9 and they were really on a good stretch of away form (W5 L1) before collapsing at the end of the season. Villa lost four of their five away games during the regular season against the other top six finishers.
Aston Villa 4/7, Middlesbrough 5/4* (Betting Odds taken at 2:23 a.m. on May 8th, 2018)
Aston Villa were on top in the league meetings between these two this season, collecting four points from the two games. Boro did take a win at Villa Park in an EFL Cup meeting as well though. But in the league meetings, Boro did not get a goal on the board against the Villains. In the last six league matches between them, Aston Villa are W2 D3 L1 against Boro so it is all pretty tight. Boro have failed to win any of their last five home games against Villa (D1 L4).
Middlesbrough have to be a bit of value to collect a home win in this one as they have to recognise that they need to earn a lead at the Riverside to make the second leg easier. They have been carrying good home form and are value in the match outright to sneak the win.
9th May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
Big stakes in this one at both ends of the table. Preston needs to win this game and hope Derby lose their final match against Barnsley on the weekend. That would put North End up into the play offs. As for Burton they really need three points out of this to get safe. If they don’t then a point would do it if Derby to beat Barnsley. So those two games are connected.
Preston 8/15, Draw 3/1, Burton 5/1* (Betting Odds taken at 4:15 a.m. on May 1st, 2018)
Preston have an outside shot at making it into the play offs. In order for that to happen they would have to first secure a win in this one and then hope that Derby loses against Barnsley. Preston are W3 D1 in their last four league games so are powering to the finish line. It’s just going to be all or nothing for them so they can throw the kitchen sink at this. They are not a particularly high scoring side compared to those starting the weekend in the play-off places. Under 2.5 goals at William Hill is at 11/10 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 11:15 p.m. on May 1st, 2018). Preston have averaged just over a goal per game on home soil this season, but they have gotten where they are because of a strong defence which has conceded at under a goal per game. Preston have been level at half time in twelve of their home games this term and so a half-time draw bet may not be a bad option. 60% of Preston’s goals at home have been produced in the second half of matches.
Burton have rallied really well to give themselves a shot at survival. They are on a three-match winning streak at the moment which was sparked by a shock win over play-off candidates Derby. They followed that up with crucial victories over Sunderland and Bolton who are the two sides beneath them in the table going into the final weekend. A point for Burton would be enough if Barnsley doesn’t win their final game. A victory gives them a better shot of staying up because they could then potentially catch Reading and Birmingham if either of those fails to win. Burton have produced only the 18 goals away from home this season while they have conceded an average of 1.6 per game. Burton have picked up four points from their last two away games, but they have lost all of they away games against the current top six (Preston are seventh) this season. So that doesn’t bode too well for them. Overall their away record is just W6 D6 L10 and only the already-relegated Sunderland have a worse defensive record than they do.
There have only been the three previous games between these two and from them, Preston are W2 D1 up. In their only previous game at Deepdale, there was a 1-1 draw played out in November 2016. Preston’s two wins in the sequence came by a one goal margin.
All Preston can do is win and hope. They have been going along well enough recently to get themselves three points in this one against the relegation-threatened Burton. It is likely to be tense, back a home win by a one-goal margin.
4th May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
Derby needs a win to guarantee that they stay in the play offs. Realistically though because of their goal difference advantage over Preston, a draw would do it for them. A loss and that opens the door for Preston to beat them into sixth place. Barnsley start just above the drop zone on goal difference only so have a tough task ahead of them.
Preston 8/15, Draw 3/1, Burton 5/1* (Betting Odds taken at 4:15 a.m. on May 1st, 2018)
The Rams just need a point out of this one to lock down a top six finish. If they get there it won’t have been without some stresses. They are only W1 D1 L3 in their last five played but in their last home game they dug out a great win against Cardiff to set themselves up for a play off place and then followed that up last weekend with a tough trip to Aston Villa where they got themselves a draw. Their form at Pride Park has been patchy with just a W2 D2 L3 record there in their last seven so haven’t been overly reliable. Their overall home record for the term is W11 D5 L6 and they have averaged 1.68 goals per home game. They are on an eight-match scoring streak on home soil so are likely to hit the back of the net. Derby to win to nil at bet365 is at 7/4 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 6:57 a.m. on May 2nd, 2018). Each of their last six league home games have gone over 2.5 goals and that is with them conceding an average of under a goal per game this season. Matej Vydra has scored thirteen of his twenty goal haul on home soil for Derby this season. Avoid defeat and they are in the play off mix.
Not an easy game for Barnsley who needs to equal whatever Burton and Bolton do in their final games to stay safe. Heading into the weekend Barnsley are only out of the drop zone on goal difference above Burton. They did get a win on the board last weekend to leave themselves in that position, beating Brentford 2-0 at home. However, their away form is just not there at all. They are on a five-match losing streak on their travels and they have failed to score in two of their last three on the road. In the bet365 correct score market, the 1-1 draw is the shortest-priced option with a 1-0 win for Derby at 13/2 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 6:57 a.m. on May 2nd, 2018). The afternoon is going to get tense for them for sure. They have averaged exactly one goal per game away from home this season and have only taken a clean sheet in 14% of their road games. They have conceded in each of their last six away games in the Championship and that equals their winless streak as well on the road. 64% of the goals that Barnsley have conceded on the road this season have been in the first half of matches. This is such a tricky afternoon for them. They have to keep tabs on what the other two beneath them are doing and just stay matched up. They just can’t go all out for a win if a point is going to get them across the finish line safely because of other results and in turn risk losing. Barnsley have scored in 73% of their away matches.
These two have traded wins already this season, Barnsley taking an EFL Cup home win with Derby winning on the road against them in the Championship. In the last five Championship games, it is Derby who are slightly ahead with a W3 D2 record. Derby have won their last three on home against Barnsley and are unbeaten in five at Pride Park.
Derby have to be good enough to close out in this one. Barnsley gave themselves a boost last weekend, but their away form is poor and the Rams can pick up the home win, potentially dooming the Tykes in the process.
4th May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
Birmingham have some work to do on the final day of the season. They are only two points from safety and because this is such a tough game they will be hoping teams beneath them misfire. Fulham have to better whatever Cardiff manage in the final round of matches to try and take second place in the table away from the Bluebirds.
Fulham 13/20, Draw 14/5, Birmingham 4/1* (Betting Odds taken at 4:15 a.m. on May 1st, 2018)
The only way that Birmingham guarantees safety is by landing a win in this one. If they lose they could be overtaken by Bolton, Burton and Barnsley, while a draw would not leave them safe if two of the other win their games. So there is some work for the Blues to do, but at least they have home advantage. The bad news is they are facing Fulham. The Blues have actually gone W3 D1 in their last four home games so have improved dramatically and they took down Sheffield United in their last home game. Their defence still looks a bit of a mess though but with their sudden home scoring form, both teams to score at bet365 is at 4/6 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 11:15 p.m. on May 1st, 2018). There are going to be plenty of nerves around. Birmingham have averaged under a goal per game at St Andrew’s, but are on a four-match scoring streak there. Just 32% of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals so it’s worth looking under for this one. Seven of their nine home wins this season have all been by just the one-goal margin. Fortunately for them perhaps they also know that Burton and Barnsley, two sides directly beneath them, both have very tough final games too.
Fulham have come this far and now just one more win could get them automatic promotion. They start the game in third place, one point behind Cardiff, so they will need Cardiff not to win their game. If Cardiff loses against Reading (not highly likely) and Fulham draw, the Cottagers would get second. So all Fulham can do is win and just hope. The Cottagers are on a tremendous unbeaten stretch of 23 league games and they are unbeaten in eleven on the road. It’s been stellar stuff from them and they are going to go to the play offs as favourites if that is where they end up. Fulham have averaged 1.7 goals per away game this season and if they net at St Andrew’s on the weekend that would be twelve straight away games that they would have scored in. 64% of their away goals have come in the second half of matches. They are just so good at the moment they aren’t likely to lose this one as they can basically go for broke as it’s either a second or a third-place finish for them regardless. A Fulham 2-1 correct score at bet365 is at 7/1 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 11:15 p.m. on May 1st, 2018).
Fulham were 1-0 winners when the two met in early December at Craven Cottage. Birmingham were on a great run of undefeated form against the London side before that. Actually, in the seven previous Championship matches, Birmingham are W3 D2 L2 against Fulham. Birmingham are W1 D1 L1 in their last three at St Andrew’s against the Cottagers.
The Blues are not likely to have enough to keep a rampant Fulham quiet at St Andrew’s. Fulham are just so strong and powerful and they have nothing to lose in this one and everything to gain. Away win.
3rd May 2018 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting
There is so much happening on the final day of the season. Basically, Cardiff have their promotion destiny in their own hands. A win secures them second place. It’s a simple as that. Anything less and they are in danger of missing out to Fulham. Reading have something in this game to play for, they are only two points clear of the drop zone.
Cardiff 4/11, Draw 15/4, Reading 15/2* (Betting Odds taken at 4:15 a.m. on May 1st, 2018)
There is going to be some exciting drama on the final day of the Championship season. Cardiff just have to win this home game to get themselves over the line and secure automatic promotion. That will be a huge relief. Anything less and Fulham will have a chance to steal it from them. Cardiff have won eight of their last nine home games (L1) and the only defeat in that sequence was against Champions Wolves so they should be thinking that they are going to be alright. Nerves may, of course, play their part on the day and Cardiff to win by a one-goal margin at bet365 is at 5/2 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 10:55 p.m. on May 1st, 2018). That is all they need. A win. Anyway, anyhow. Four of Cardiff’s last five home wins have been by a one-goal margin only so there is a trend there anyway. In the bet365 correct score market a Cardiff 1-0 is at 11/2 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 10:55 p.m. on May 1st, 2018). While they have scored well at 1.8 goals per home game on average, they have been defensively strong too with just 16 goals conceded in 22 home games.
The Royals are not mathematically safe but would need for a lot of things to go wrong in other matches for them to fall into the drop zone. So they should end up safe even if they lost this one. They are just the two points above the relegation zone going into the game and they aren’t carrying any form with only the one point collected in their last four games. Their away form is pretty shocking at the moment as well, not only are they without a win in their last seven on the road, they are on a five-match losing streak as well on their travels. They have not taken a clean sheet in any of their last eight road games and have failed to score in their last three. Cardiff to win to nil is at 11/10 odds* (Betting Odds taken at 10:55 p.m. on May 1st, 2018). Their away form is going to leave them in some peril here and it’s so hard to see them coming up with a win all of a sudden. But if they lose this it would still need Birmingham to not get a point along with Barnsley and Burton to not win their final games. Reading should just about be alright, but digging in for a point here would ease a lot of tension.
There was a good 2-2 draw between them when they met the Madejski. Reading are actually without a loss in their last four against Cardiff (W2 D2) so they do have that going for them. They even bust out a 1-0 win in this corresponding fixture from last season. How they would love a repeat of that. The Royals are W3 D2 L3 in their last eight visits to South Wales in all competitions.
This is going to be a tight affair but home advantage may just tip the balance in this one. Nerves have to come into play here and a Cardiff to win by a one-goal margin looks about right.
3rd May 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
The Villains are heading towards the play offs and they have slipped back into good form as well with a three match winning streak going for themselves. After a big win over Ipswich on the weekend, they will be confident of taking down Derby who had to go through an extra tough midweek game. But the Rams took a hugely important win on Tuesday night to boost their play off chances.
Aston Villa 19/20, Draw 5/2, Derby 11/4* (Betting Odds taken at 00:22 p.m. on March 20th, 2018)
Villa are running on a three match winning streak in the Championship at the moment and each of their last four wins in the Championship have all been with a clean sheet. Aston Villa to win to nil with bet365 is at 4/5 odds* (betting odds taken on April 24th, 2018 at 2:56 a.m.). Villa have actually kept five clean sheets in their last six games so they are carrying good form towards the play offs. Villa are on a three match winning streak at Villa Park as well and they have produced a fantastic W8 D1 L1 record in their last ten home games. So you would imagine that there is enough there to see them get the win on the board in this one. Villa’s overall record at home this season is W14 D6 L2 and they have averaged 1.8 goals per game, while they have conceded just the 18 goals in 22 fixtures. They have taken a clean sheet in 45% of their games at Villa Park this season. The Villains have netted in each of their last eleven home games and in the bet365 correct score market an Aston Villa 1-0 is going to appeal at 6/1 odds* (betting odds taken on April 24th, 2018 at 2:56 a.m.). Only the top two have a better home record than Villa to this season.
Derby took a massively important win over Cardiff in midweek which saw them move back above Millwall into sixth spot. Will they be able to hang on to that play off place with two to play? That was a huge result for them especially as they had lost their previous three on the trot. It is all excitingly getting down to the wire now and there’s no more margin for error. Derby have lost their last two away from home in the league and have won just one of their last eight away from Pride Park (D4 L3) so it’s fair to say that they haven’t been travelling well. They have failed to take a clean sheet in any of their last four league games now so both teams to score with bet365 is at 4/5 odds* (betting odds taken on April 24th, 2018 at 2:56 a.m.). That win over Cardiff has to have done their confidence the world of good. Derby’s overall away form for the season is W8 D9 L5 and they have averaged 1.3 goals per game on their travels. Matej Vydra was on the scoresheet again in the week and he is going to their best route to goal. Derby have scored in 73% of their away games in the Championship this season. They need another performance like the one that they just pulled out of their hat.
Aston Villa suffered a 2-0 defeat at Pride Park back in December but that continued a streak of both teams not scoring in any of the last five games between the two of them. Aston Villa though are up in the recent head to head with a W4 D1 L1 record in their last six meetings with the Rams. The Villains have won their last eight league matches on home soil against the Rams.
Villa have the home form to suggest that they can go and get themselves three points in the bag in this one. It’s just about momentum for them now as they really themselves for their postseason challenge. Derby did the business when they had to at home in midweek, but it is still going to be tough to get anything out of Villa at Villa Park. Home win to nil.
25th April 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting
Millwall are still in with a chance of a top-six finish and therefore a place in the play offs at the end of the season.They had their tremendous run of unbeaten form snapped on the weekend though as they lost against Fulham. Can they produce a response as they go into another difficult away game with a trip to the Riverside to face play-off bounce Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough 19/20, Draw 11/5, Millwall 11/4* (betting odds taken on April 24th, 2018 at 3:09 a.m.)
Middlesbrough still have a shot at a play off spot and a home win in this one could get them there. Boro took a good away win at Derby last weekend to keep themselves in the top six and they have won three of their last four games now so are finishing the season somewhat strongly. Their home record this season is W13 D3 L6 and they are undefeated in their last two. They have found the back of the net in each of their last seven home games and have scored at least two in each of their last two at the Riverside. This is a tough game against a good Millwall side though and the shortest priced option in the bet365 correct score market is a 1-1 draw at 11/2 odds* (betting odds taken on April 24th, 2018 at 3:09 a.m.). Boro have done very well defensively on home soil having conceded just 17 goals in their 22 home games and they have taken a clean sheet in 45% of their home fixtures. Because of the pressure riding on this one it probably makes sense to just look under 2.5 goals. Currently home and away combined Boro have scored in each of their last twelve league games now.
How costly will Millwall’s home loss against Fulham on the weekend prove to be? That stopped their huge momentum having gone unbeaten in their previous seventeen league games. They were on fire and had played their way into the top six but now face a tricky away game in which to try and recover. Millwall have not won away at any of the current top eleven sides this season (D5 L4) so their away record isn’t that great in the big games. Their overall away form is W7 D8 L7 this season and they are still on a great nine-match undefeated streak of away form in the league. They have been strong lately and the Lions have scored exactly two goals in each of their last four away games. Their loss at Fulham on the weekend snapped a fourteen match scoring streak that they were on. They are still on a ten-match scoring streak away from The Den though but this should be a tight fixture and under 2.5 goals is at 8/11 odds* (betting odds taken on April 24th, 2018 at 2:56 a.m.). There is still a tight race ahead with just the two games remaining. Can Millwall keep themselves in the hunt with three points?
Millwall were 2-1 home winners over Middlesbrough when they met in mid-December and things are pretty even between the two from recent head to heads. In the last five meetings, Boro are 3-2 ahead but they have won just one of their last five home games in league action against the Lions (W1 D1 L3). Each of the last four meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.
It can be a tough thing to pick yourself up once your unbeaten bubble has been burst and that is the problem that Millwall face. This isn’t an easy game on the road for them as Boro have a lot at stake as well. A rare draw between the two of them may be worth backing because the pressure is going to be on.
24th April 2018 / lee - Category: Championship Betting