The draw for the semi-finals of the FA Cup sees outright favourites Manchester City take on Brighton and Wolves going up against Watford. It was another fantastic weekend of Cup action with Watford the first to reach the final four.
Man City 1/3
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on March 17th, 2019 at 7:10 p.m.)
Andre Gray came off the bench to get the winning goal at Vicarage Road for Watford against Crystal Palace. They will go up against Wolves who produced a fantastic display to dispatch Manchester United on Saturday evening at Molineux. It continues a fine season from Nuno Espirito Santo’s men in both league and cup.
Manchester City had to mount a big fightback to reach the final four. They found themselves 2-0 down at Championship side Swansea but managed to haul themselves through to the next round with a 3-2 turnaround. It leaves Manchester City as 1/3 outright favourites* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on March 17th, 2019 at 7:10 p.m.).
The Citizens, who are still firing on four different fronts this season play host to Brighton. The Seagulls managed to scrape through a tough match at Millwall on Sunday, equalising in the 95th minute after a mistake front the Lions’ keeper. That gave them the lifeline they needed and they came through a penalty shootout to reach the final four.
18th March 2019 / lee - Category: FA Cup & League Cup Betting
This could be a great scrap at The Den. Millwall have not been enjoying a great deal of success in their Championship game. This is a great chance for them to blow off some steam and they have already knocked Everton out of this season’s competition. Will Brighton survive the trip? Read our Millwall v Brighton betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on March 14th, 2019 at 8:00 p.m.)
The Lions are down near the relegation zone in the Championship and things are a little tedious there for them. But the FA Cup has brought them some good relief. Millwall’s FA Cup campaign started with a home win over Hull, then they pulled off a huge upset in taking out Premier League side Everton at the Den. Then it was a narrow 1-0 win out at AFC Wimbledon for them. So they have all been tight one-goal margin wins in the FA Cup from Millwall, but they have gotten the job done. Home and away, their current form has seen them lose four of their last five. They snapped a four-match losing streak with an away win at Birmingham in the Championship last weekend. Their only home success in their last six games at The Den was their win over Everton (D2 L3).
This is the first meeting since the 2014/15 Championship season
Millwall have won just one of their last eight against Brighton
Five of the last eight meetings have been drawn
None of the last four meetings have gone over 2.5 goals
Brighton had gone D3 L4 in a poor run of form, but they have perhaps just turned the corner. The Seagulls have won three of their last four played in all competitions (L1). That run of improvement started with a 2-1 home success over Championship side Derby in the last round of the competition. They are not particularly in great shape on their travels through. A win at Crystal Palace the league in their last away game snapped a four-match winless streak they were on. Brighton have lost five of their last nine on the road. Brighton won at Bournemouth in the third round and then needed extra time to take a win over West Brom at the Hawthorns in the fourth round.
Brighton to win at 11/10 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on March 14th, 2019 at 8:00 p.m.) offers just enough value for us. The Seagulls have just hit a bit of form at the right time. This won’t be easy but they can get themselves over the finish line.
16th March 2019 / lee - Category: FA Cup & League Cup Betting
The Eagles have won three of their last five games and relegation concerns seem to be well behind them at the moment. They will be looking for more against Brighton on the weekend at Selhurst Park. The Seagulls snapped a long winless streak last week to ease some of their own rising relegation worries. Read our Crystal Palace v Brighton betting tips for more.
Crystal Palace 4/5
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on March 6th, 2019 at 7:38 p.m.)
The Eagles secured a very good away win at Burnley last weekend which was their third win in five Premier League games (D1 L1). They have only lost one of their last six played, home and away, so things are going well at the moment. Their record at home this season isn’t great at just W3 D4 L7 though. They are W1 D1 L1 in their last three there. But as a positive for them in this one Crystal Palace have lost just one of six home games this season against other teams in the bottom half of the table.
The Eagles are at just the ten goals at home this season. 21% of games at Selhurst Park have ended under 2.5 goals. That having been said Palace have scored in each of their last four home fixtures in the EPL. 80% of their home goals conceded have been in the second half of matches. Bottom side Huddersfield are the only team who have a worse home record in the division than the Eagles have. Palace have scored the opening goal in 5 of their 14 home games only.
Brighton took a 3-1 home win over Crystal Palace earlier this season
The Eagles are unbeaten in four home games against Brighton (W2 D2)
Palace were 3-2 winners in last season’s corresponding fixture
Each of the last three meetings have gone over 2.5 goals
Brighton were winless in seven league games before grinding out a 1-0 home win over bottom side Huddersfield last weekend. That was a big three points for the Seagulls to stop their slide. They are W1 D3 L5 in their last nine. That home success last weekend has done nothing to arrest their poor away form though. The Seagulls are winless in six top-flight away games, collecting just the one point in that sequence. They have tallied 13 away goals this season.
The away record of the Seagulls is W2 D2 L10. They have conceded quite heavily on their travels with 1.8 goals against them per game on average. They have conceded a total of ten goals in their last four away games alone. Brighton have managed to earn just one away clean sheet themselves this season. They are without one in any of their last nine on the road. Brighton have actually conceded at least two goals in each of their last five away games.
The Eagles are in good enough form to come up with three points here. The away form of Brighton just hasn’t been there and the Eagles can take them down. Home win in a low scoring game probably.
8th March 2019 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting
The drop in form that Brighton have had recently has started to raise some relegation concerns for them. They get a chance to put some big survival points on the board on the weekend as they play host to relegation-favourites Huddersfield. Read our Brighton v Huddersfield betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 27th, 2019 at 6:06 p.m.)
Brighton were going really strongly at home over the first part of the season. However, since the middle of December things have started going a little bit sour for them. Brighton are just W1 D2 L3 in their last six league home games. So they have started to get badly exposed and their overall drop in form has seen them slide back towards the relegation zone.
After a loss at Leicester on Tuesday, they have one point in six, home and away. But this really is an opportunity on home soil that they can’t afford to miss. Overall this season Brighton have a record of W5 D4 L4.
Three of the four losses which they have taken at the Amex Stadium have been against current top six sides. Two of their last three home losses have been against Liverpool and Chelsea. Brighton have averaged 1.2 goals per home game this season and less than half of their home fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals.
The Seagulls have a clean sheet in 31% of their home fixtures this term. Four of the five home victories which they have recorded have been by a one-goal margin only. 70% of all of their league points this season have been earned on home soil and they badly need a big boost of a win in this one.
Brighton earned a 2-1 away win at Huddersfield in December
From three previous EPL meetings, things are even with one win each and one draw
Brighton are undefeated in their last six home games against the Terriers
Both teams have scored in three of the last four meetings
A 1-0 home win over Wolves on Tuesday night gave Huddersfield their first win under new boss Jan Siewert and it snapped a long losing streak of form that they were on. Huddersfield had only claimed one point from their previous 14 games before that success over Wolves.
But they are heading back out on the road this weekend in search of what will be just their second league victory away from home this term. Incidentally, their only away win happened against Wolves.
In their last seven games out on their travels, Huddersfield have managed to claim just the one point. They have not scored in any of their last four away games either. In total, the Terriers have produced just eight away goals this season while they have conceded at over two goals per game on average away from home.
Just twice this season have the Terriers recorded an away clean sheet. The Terriers have conceded at least two goals in each of their last two away games and Fulham are the only side with a worse away record in the division than Huddersfield.
Brighton really need come up with something to steady the ship a little bit and we can see them having just enough to get over the finish line in this one. Probably it will be by nothing more than a one-goal margin though and they have a good shot at a clean sheet.
28th February 2019 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting
The Foxes sacked Claude Puel on the weekend after yet another setback. Leicester took a hammering at home against Crystal Palace which was the last straw for the board. Brighton remain in a bit of trouble near the relegation zone but should be rested after not playing on the weekend. Read our Leicester v Brighton betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 24th, 2019 at 7:43 p.m.)
The poor form of Leicester continued on the weekend as they lost 4-1 at the King Power against Crystal Palace. That was their third defeat in a row and it has left them having collected just the one point from their last six league fixtures. They are actually W1 D1 L6 in their last eight EPL outings. Overall this season on home soil Leicester are W4 D2 L7 and their form on home soil lately has been poor all of the way.
Leicester are currently on a four-match losing streak at home and they have lost five of their last six at the King Power (L1). In total they have come up with the 14 goals in their 13 home games, so haven’t been an offensive threat. Home and away, Leicester have taken no clean sheets in their last six played. They have not taken one in any of their last six on home soil in the top flight. Less than half of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Brighton and Leicester played out a 1-1 draw in November
The Foxes are unbeaten in their last three against the Seagulls
The three previous EPL meetings have all ended under 2.5 goals
Leicester’s last two wins over Brighton have been by a 2-0 scoreline
The Seagulls got the weekend off because they had been due to Chelsea, who were taking part in the EFL Cup final. So they got a break. It will have given them a bit of a chance to regroup because their form has fallen away. They have taken only the one point from their last five league games and they are winless in six. Brighton have managed to collect just the one victory in their last eleven league outings.
Their defence has been having a hard time as they have conceded at least two goals in four of their last six played. Overall this season their away form is W2 D2 L9. In attack, they have averaged less than a goal per game on their travels. They are without a clean sheet in any of their last eight on the road. They have actually conceded at least two goals in each of their last four road fixtures. The Seagulls have been trailing at the break in 7 of their 13 road games.
The Foxes clearly needed a shakeup. Because of not knowing what comes next for them the option of the draw in the outright market looks a good proposition. Brighton are rested but haven’t produced much away form.
25th February 2019 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting
The quarter finals of the FA Cup was made on Monday evening. The final game of the fifth round saw Manchester United take what was a comfortably easy away win at Chelsea. That was a repeat of last season’s FA Cup Final line up, with Chelsea prevailing. So the holders are out and Manchester United are now running as second favourites to lift this season’s title.
Man City 4/5
Man Utd 10/3
Crystal Palace 14/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 18th, 2019 at 10:32 pm)
Manchester United are 10/3 to win the FA Cup this season* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 18th, 2019 at 10:32 pm). Having played away at Arsenal and then Chelsea in the last two rounds, once again they’ll be back out on the road against Premier League opposition. United go to Wolves in the final eight.
Their rivals Manchester City remain the favourites to win outright at 4/5 odds* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 18th, 2019 at 10:32 pm). The Citizens are also out on the road in the quarterfinals, making a trip to south Wales to face Championship side Swansea.
Swansea are one of two Championship sides left in the competition along with Millwall. Manchester United and Manchester United are the only two from the so-called Big Six of English football to remain in the competition.
Swansea v Man City
Watford v Crystal Palace
Wolves v Man Utd
Millwall v Brighton
Ties to be played March 15-17
19th February 2019 / lee - Category: FA Cup & League Cup Betting
This could actually be quite a close game down at the Amex. Championship Derby like to play a good open game. Will they be able to come through as underdogs and reach the quarterfinals? Brighton will have their hands full as they have been struggling for wins. Read our Brighton v Derby betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 13th, 2019 at 3:34 a.m.)
Where have the wins gone for Brighton? The Seagulls are currently on a seven-match streak in all competitions without one (over 90 minutes). In the last round of the FA Cup, they were taken to extra time in their replay against Championship side West Brom. Fortunately for the Seagulls, Glenn Murray came on and rescued them with two extra-time goals. Looking back a little further Brighton have just two wins in their last fourteen games in all competitions.
Just one of those were at home. So it is not quite happening for them. In the third round of the FA Cup, they did pull off an upset in winning away at Bournemouth. Their home form has seen them go winless in four at the Amex and in that sequence, they scored just one goal. Brighton have scored exactly one goal in eight of their last eleven home fixtures. To be fair they have taken three clean sheet in their last five at the Amex.
So Derby will be looking at Brighton and probably not seeing too much to fear at the moment. The big focus for the Rams is trying to get a top six finish in the Championship. In midweek they may have had one eye on this FA Cup tie, because they could only manage a 1-1 draw out at bottom side Ipswich. But still, that leaves the Derby with just one defeat in their last 10 fixtures played across all competitions.
The draw leaves Derby on a four-match undefeated streak on their travels. In the third round of the FA Cup they did take out a Premier League side, the Rams winning a replay in a penalty shootout against Southampton. They followed that up with an away win against league one side Accrington. Given that Derby have only lost one of their last six on the road, there is every reason to believe that they can put up a serious challenge at the Amex stadium.
Brighton may just have enough on home soil to see off the underdogs. We can see it being tight and we can see goals flying around. Seagulls to narrowly prevail.
14th February 2019 / lee - Category: FA Cup & League Cup Betting
Brighton will be looking to snap a five-match winless streak of league form when they play host to Burnley on the weekend. It’s an important game for the Seagulls too because a loss would see the Clarets move level on points with them. Burnley starts fourth from bottom. Read our Brighton v Burnley betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 5th, 2019 at 11:38 p.m.)
The Seagulls have been struggling to get themselves going since the beginning of December really. They have taken just the one win in their last ten played now in the Premier League. They are without a win five (D2 L3). Last weekend they picked up a 0-0 home draw against Watford, doing more than enough to win the game but they couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net. Brighton’s home form isn’t bad at W1 D2 L1 in their last four, the loss in that sequence too was a 1-0 reverse against Liverpool.
Only 42% of their home games this season have ended over 2.5 goals. Each of their last four at the Amex have finished under the goal line. The Seagulls have taken a clean sheet in 33% of their home games. They have two in their last three on home soil. Brighton’s overall home record is W5 D4 L3. They scored in each of their first ten home games of the term but have failed to strike in their last two there. All three of their home defeats incidentally have been against current top-four sides and all by a one-goal margin.
Burnley earned a 1-0 home win over Brighton in December
There has been one goal in total in the last three meetings
Five of the last six meetings have ended in a draw
Just one of their last eight games between them have ended over 2.5 goals
Burnley are on a six-match undefeated streak of form (W3 D3) and they have drawn each of their last three (against Watford, Man Utd and Southampton). Their overall away form is just W2 D4 L7 this season though. But they have improved to an unbeaten three-match streak on their travels (W1 D2). So the improvement has clearly been there and they have looked spirited and up for the fight lately. Burnley have only produced the 11 goals across their thirteen league away games this season, so they have been a bit short there.
The Clarets have conceded at an average of 1.85 goals per road game, having earned only the three clean sheets (all 0-0 draws incidentally). 54% of their away games have ended over 2.5 goals. Burnley’s half time away record is well worth a look as there is a big trend there. It is W0 D9 L4. They have conceded 67% of their away goals in the second half of fixtures and have scored 64% of their away goals after the halftime break. Fulham are the only side to have conceded more league goals than they have done this season.
Brighton actually did well at home against Watford last weekend but came up against an inspired performance by keeper Ben Foster. They may be able to force it home against Burnley though as the Seagulls are tough to beat at home. Home win.
7th February 2019 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting
When these two came out of the hat together for the draw it is always looked as if could be a tight tussle. It was that way in the first meeting with a 0-0 draw played out at the Amex. Will it be Championship side West Brom who holds the advantage now with home soil for the replay? The winners hosts Derby in the next round. Read our West Brom v Brighton betting tips for more.
West Brom 9/5
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 2nd, 2019 at 11:33 p.m.)
Well, it’s back to square one for these two in the FA Cup as neither managed to get on the scoresheet in the first meeting. West Brom are driving well on a big promotion push in the Championship. They lost a big home clash with Middlesbrough on the weekend through 2-3. Anyway, that snapped a four-match undefeated streak that they had been on. That includes the 0-0 draw against Brighton. The Baggies are the highest-scoring side in the Championship and so there is every reason to believe that they will carry a threat. The Throstles can also bring a bit of home form to the table too. They were on an eight undefeated streak of form at home in all competitions before their loss against Boro on the weekend. They have lost just four home games all term.
Brighton played out a 0-0 draw against Watford on the weekend in the Premier League. That was their fifth game in a row without a win. Over their last twelve games in all competitions, Brighton have only won two fixtures. One of those was a good 3-1 win at Bournemouth in the last round of the FA Cup. Brighton though have failed to score in two of their last three away games so it will be interesting to see how they handle this tricky away game. The Seagulls haven’t been good travellers. That win at Bournemouth in the last round is their only success in their last six away from the Amex (D1 L4). They have won just there away games in all competitions this season. They have, however, been scoring a bit more frequently, having averaged exactly two goals per game in their last four road fixtures. However, it is worth putting into context the fact that they have managed just one clean sheet all season away from home.
West Brom have to have a decent shot at knocking off their Premier League opposition here. Albion are a good, strong home side and the Seagulls haven’t been travellers at all this season. West Brom to win at 29/20 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 2nd, 2019 at 11:33 p.m.)
4th February 2019 / lee - Category: FA Cup & League Cup Betting
Brighton v Watford Premier League Preview, 2nd February 3.00pm
Watford looked as if they were going to get three points out of a trip to Tottenham on Wednesday evening. However, it fell apart for them inside final 10 mins as they ended up suffering a loss. Speaking of losses Brighton suffered their third in a row as they were torn apart by the relegation-threatened Fulham on Tuesday. Read our Brighton v Watford betting tips for more.
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on January 29th, 2019 at 4:59 p.m.)
Brighton found themselves 2-0 ahead at half-time away at Fulham in midweek. Come the end of the game they had been beaten heavily 4-2. That leaves the Seagulls on a three-match losing streak in the Premier League. It leaves them with just the one victory in their last nine league games, Brighton losing six of those. So they are struggling for form at the moment. Overall this season on home soil, Brighton have posted a W5 D3 L3 record. Each of their last three there have ended under 2.5 goals.
Brighton have come up with 15 goals across their home fixtures this season in the league, while they have taken a clean sheet in 27% of them. To their credit, they have only been trailing at the halftime break in three of their 11 home games this season. Four of the five home victories which they have recorded have all been by a one-goal margin. As a positive Brighton have scored in all but one of their home league games this season. They go into this match certainly needing a huge boost of three points to try and steady the ship.
Watford earned a 2-0 home win over Brighton back in the middle of August
Brighton have taken one win in their last nine games against Watford
Both teams have scored in just one of the last six meetings
Only one of the last nine games between them have managed to get above 2.5 goals
It was so near yet so far for Watford on Wednesday evening as they couldn’t hold onto their one-goal lead at Tottenham. Watford ended up losing the game 2-1 late on. That ended a four-match undefeated streak of form that Watford were on in the top flight. But still, that was just their second defeat in their last eight games, the other one in that sequence being against the current top five side Chelsea.
Away from home this season Watford have posted an even W4 D4 L4 record. They can take some heart from having won two of their last four road games as well (D1 L1). Watford have scored at least two goals in four of their last five on the road. The Hornets are on a five-match scoring streak on their travels in the top flight. In total they have managed 17 away goals this season, conceding 16.
42% of their away games have ended over 2.5 goals. Clean sheets in general for them this season away from home have been a struggle. Watford have just the three but two of them have been in their last three road games. Watford have opened the scoring in half of their away fixtures. Wherever you can look for them all of their stats just come out around average. For example, the half-time away record is W4 D4 L4 as well away from home this season. Watford’s last three away games have all gone over 2.5 goals
It seems like a decent opportunity to have a punt on a draw in the match outright. Brighton have done pretty well on home soil, but they will be smarting after the way they lost in midweek. Watford are a team who can blow a bit hot and cold away from home. Draw.
31st January 2019 / lee - Category: Premiership Betting