Showdown at Old Trafford: Betting Tips for the Super League Final 20172nd October 2017 / Julian
After a summer of hard knocks and bone crunching tackles, the rugby league season is set to bow out with one final showdown – the XXII Super League final. After 23 rounds, numerous qualifiers and play-offs, two teams have earned to right to battle it out at Old Trafford on October 7 for the Super League Trophy.
It’s an all Yorkshire clash this year with Castleford Tigers and Leeds Rhinos set to clash in the 2017 Grand Final. It’s the first time that Castleford have reached the final showdown of the Super League, but it comes off the back of an incredible year for the West Yorkshire side in which they won the League Leader’s Shield before the season split off for the Super 8s. Leeds Rhinos, on the other hand, are no strangers to playing in games with the magnitude of the Grand Final; this will be the team’s 10th appearance at the Old Trafford final.
So, in many ways it’s the veteran champions against the upstarts, with Castleford looking to upset the status quo and prevent Leeds from further cementing their dominance on the competition. But, historical wins doesn’t guarantee future success, be it in a game of rugby league or when you are betting online. So, how are the betting odds for the Super League Final 2017 shaping up?
Who Will Be the Winner
Leeds Rhinos may be well ahead of Castleford Tigers when it comes to the number of Grand Finals that they have won, but that isn’t necessarily going to help them to win their 8th Super League trophy on October 7. The fact of the matter is that Castleford have just been so dominant this season, winning 20 games and losing just 3 in the regular season format while scoring the most points and conceding the least of any team in the competition.
That’s not to say that Leeds Rhinos haven’t had a good season either, ultimately finishing second in the Betfred Super League, albeit a full 10 points off the pace set by Castleford. With this in mind, it isn’t much of a surprise to see that Castleford go into the final as odds on favourite with the best value odds of 11/17 offered by Unibet. If you want to back Leeds, then you will be looking at odds of 7/4 which can currently be found at the Betfred online sportsbook.
When you’re betting on any sports event, it’s always important to access the perceived value in the odds that are available. You might think that are available for this event aren’t particularly attractive considering Castleford’s dominance over the season and the fact that they have beaten Leeds in the last 8 meetings between the two clubs (rather comfortably on most occasions, might we add). That said, there is always that “big stage” factor of a final that could throw all form out of the window.
It is arguable that the nerves of the big occasion almost got to Castleford in their dramatic golden point victory over St Helens in the semi-final but, then again, Leeds Rhinos needed a late try to secure an 18-16 win over Hull FC in their semi-final match. If you think that the final could be a closely fought affair then you might even fancy odds of 25/1 for a draw in regulation time.
While all of the pre-match talk will be about who will clinch the victory, there are many more ways to bet on the Super League Final than just the end result. Naturally, how deep you want to delve into the world of alternative betting markets will depend on how closely you follow the sport and how much leg work you are prepared to put in when it comes to tracking the statistics and finding the best odds available. To start you off, you can get a pretty decent overview of the key numbers on a website like www.loverugbyleague.com/stats and there is a fairly comprehensive comparison of the best rugby league betting odds at www.oddschecker.com.
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Greg Eden to Score First Try – 7/1 (PaddyPower)
With 38 tries in 2017 – 17 more than any other player in Super League – we don’t see any harm n backing Greg Eden to get the try scoring under way at Old Trafford in the Grand Final. Other Castleford players who could find themselves placing the ball over the try line according to the odds are Greg Minikin at 10/1, Zak Hardaker at 11/1, Jake Webster at 14/1 and Joel Monaghan at 14/1.
If you think that the first player to score a try will be wearing a Leeds Rhinos shirt then you be looking at betting options such as Ryan Hall at 11/1, Tom Briscoe at 13/1 and Joel Moon at 14/1.
Anytime Tryscorer Matt Parcell – 5/2 (Betfair)
With 17 tries scored this year, Leeds Rhino Hooker Matt Parcell is pretty good value at 5/2 to score a try during the final against Castleford. Admittedly, the Australian player’s role on the field is to facilitate the movement of the ball after a tackle, so this is perhaps why he isn’t fancied over other players to get a try in this game, but with a scoring record like his there is every chance that he could come through to return a tidy sum.
If you’re looking for shorter odds then you are certainly going to find them in this market with a number of players at odds close to evens. Castleford’s Gred Eden is odds-on to score a try at any time during the match at 4/5 while Greg Minikin can be snapped up at 6/5.
Over 8.5 Tries – 15/8 (PaddyPower)
If there’s one thing that neutrals are hoping for, then it is that the game will be full of tries. With the way Castleford have been scoring this season, there’s no reason why there couldn’t be over 8.5 tries in the match – we’re sure that Leeds Rhinos will pitch in with a few of their own too. We reckon that odds of 15/8 represents pretty decent value that there will be 9 tries or more in the game.
Castleford to win by 1 to 5 points – 5/1 (William Hill)
It’s not too unfair to say that both of these teams scraped their way into the final, winning their semi-final matches by no more than a couple of points. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the final itself will be a close match, but the odds that it will be are looking very attractive with 5/1 on Castleford to win by no more than 5 points. Alternatively you can get slightly longer odds of 6/1 on Leeds Rhinos to win it by no more than 5 points.
Long Shot Punts
Now, most punters bet on sports with a level head, with the intention of placing relatively safe bets in order to slowly build that bankroll up. Other bettors prefer to take a more gung ho approach to betting, backing the most ridiculous odds that they can find. If that sounds like your style, then you might be tempted by some long shot punts such as Leeds to win by more than 51 points at 500/1, the first scoring play to be a drop goal at 250/1, or for there to be fewer than 10.5 points scored in the game at 100/1.
The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+
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