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Premier League Winner Odds Update – 8 Games Down

10th October 2018 / lee
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Manchester City

While the Premier League is another break it is a good time to take stock of where things are at. A lot of punters really won’t start looking at the league table until the start of October because that is when things are really starting to settle down.

Heading into the October international break, teams in the top flight had completed eight games each.

Naturally, odds have shifted, in some cases dramatically on the big six in the league from the start of the season. Here we take a look at just how much the betting has changed in the Premier League 2018/19 winner market and what it all translated to now in terms of probability with almost a quarter of the season done and dusted already.

Premier League Winner Odds*

Man City 4/6
Liverpool 9/4
Chelsea 9/1
Tottenham 33/1
Arsenal 40/1
Man Utd 100/1
Wolves 500/1
bar 1000/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm)

Manchester City

August 1st 8/13
Currently 4/6
Implied Probability 60%

The Citizens took some extra backing on board before the October international break and that was because of landing a 0-0 draw at Anfield. The point taken off their nearest challengers for the league title was seen as a big improvement for Pep Guardiola’s men, especially having suffered at the hands of Liverpool so much last season. So that is a point earned on the road that left them in good standing. The reigning Champions were a little shorter priced back at the start of September. The threat of Liverpool overall though has tempered them back.

Prediction: We can see the Citizens having the longevity and quality to stick it out and pull away to land the title again. Those 4/6 odds are likely to shift over the next quarter a bit* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).


August 1st 14/1
Currently 9/1
Implied Probability 10%

The Blues are easily the ones in the top six who have caused the biggest surprise (in a positive manner at least). After a summer of turmoil, with new boss Maurizio Sarri not coming in with a lot of time to work ahead of the new season, it was expected that the Blues would struggle. With a extreme change of tactics compared to what they were doing last season under Antonio Conte and a squad that looked short of quality, it’s been a dramatic revival. They may not be favourites but at 9/1 they haven’t been shorter to win this season’s Premier League* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Prediction: We don’t see Chelsea having the legs to stand up and get the title in their hands this season, not even if they sacrifice their interest in the Europa League. A couple of injuries to key players and they’ll be struggling with a lack of depth. The Blues are 1/4 for a top-four finish* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).


August 1st 9/2
Currently 9/4
Implied Probability 30.8%

Even though it has been such a strong start from Liverpool this season, matching the Citizens all the way in terms of points through eight games, a slight drop in form has already started to raise questions about the Reds. With back to back draws against Chelsea and Man City, that was a quick turnaround of dropped points against two title challengers. Across all competitions, Liverpool failed to win their last four (D2 L2) before heading into the intentional break. With Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino’s output nowhere near what it was last season, are there early signs that the Reds can’t keep up the pace?

Prediction: We can see the Reds just coming up short again but actually improving to a second place finish from last season. There were worrying signs about their slight change in set up which has seen which has seen them go a bit more conservative. A Man City/Liverpool straight forecast is at 6/4 odds* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).


August 1st 12/1
Current 33/1
Implied Probability 2.9%

Tottenham had a couple of setbacks at the start of October losing against Watford and Liverpool in back to back matches. At times they have looked a little jaded, but they have so many touches of quality in their squad that they can pull through. They may have missed the boat in not signing players in the summer transfer market when it comes to lasting the season. They haven’t looked at their freshest this term and aren’t likely to get the title. They have looked far more hit and miss in their form over their opening eight games.

Prediction: It was always a risk what Spurs did in the summer in not signing players. However, it was genuinely hard to see where they could improve. They haven’t improved enough to get in the title picture. We like the 6/5 odds on them to NOT finish in the top four* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).


August 1st 25/1
Current 40/1
Implied Probability 2.4%

Arsenal have actually done pretty well under Unai Emery. It wasn’t a great start as they suffered back to back losses against Man City and Chelsea in a rough opening. But with six straight league wins since then and a bold, attacking approach to games, they are flying at the moment. They look solid enough to make a push for a top-four spot, potentially ahead of North London rivals Spurs.

Prediction: We fancy the Gunners making a good run at the top four this season as basically they don’t have to worry about Manchester United so it’s a five-horse race instead of a six. They look refreshed under Emery and good things could be waiting. The Gunners are backable at 6/4 for a top-four return* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm).

Manchester United

August 1st 13/2
Currently 100/1
Implied Probability 1%

Well, there is little chance of the Red Devils getting the league title this season. Back at the start of August, they had an implied probability of 13.8% to win the Premier League outright. Now it is down to 1% in a dramatic shift. It has been a chaotic mess from them. They had actually started to get a bit of betting momentum behind them over the summer, being drawn into a price that now looks crazily optimistic in hindsight. Not many would have foreseen what has happened to them this season. They could be in for a rollercoaster ride still with Mourinho hanging in there.

Prediction: The Red Devils are at 4/11 to NOT finish in the top four this season in the Premier League* (betting odds taken on October 9th, 2018 at 5:20 pm). That sums up everything about them. The quality is obviously there in their players to grind out a top six, but we don’t see them breaking the top four.

The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+

* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!

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