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Italy v Portugal Prediction & Betting Tips, 17th November 2018

14th November 2018 / lee
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Italy v Portugal Nations League Preview, 17th November 7.45pm

Nations League A3 leaders Portugal have the chance to close out the group and secure qualification to the Nations League Finals on the weekend. All that they need out of this game is the one point to get the job complete. It leaves Italy facing a must-win situation in a tough away game. That would keep their hopes of winning the group alive, but would still need a favour from Poland when they take on Portugal in the final group stage match. Read our Italy v Portugal betting tips for more.

Italy v Portugal Betting Odds*

Italy 23/20
Draw 11/5
Portugal 5/2
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on November 13th, 2018 at 3:08 p.m.)

Italy News and Form

The Italians have to come out and produce a victory in this one. That is the only way the window stays open for them to potentially win the group. Even if they win they would need help from Poland in the last group game against Portugal. The thing about this for Italy, in what is their final game of the group, is that Poland have already been relegated so they have nothing to lose going into this fixture. The Italians are only W1 D2 L1 in their last four games, with the win in that sequence being a 1-0 success over Poland in their last Nations League fixture. That is just one of two wins that the Italians have collected in their last eleven games now (D5 L4).

Before that 1-0 success over Poland last month, they had not banked a clean sheet in eight games. In the correct score market the 1-1 draw is the shortest-priced option at 5/1 odds* (betting odds taken on November 13th, 2018 at 4:05 pm). There is a bit of a trend with that option too as Italy have drawn each of their last five home games, three of those being by the 1-1 scoreline. The Azzurri have come up with only the two goals in their last four games but they have a bit of form going against Portugal. The Italians have won their last five home games against Portugal without conceding a goal. They are unbeaten in eight overall on home soil against Portugal.

Italy v Portugal Head to Head

Portugal have won the last two meetings by a 1-0 scoreline
Italy lead the overall head to head 17-7 with 2 draws
The Italians have won their last three home fixtures against Portugal
Italy have not conceded in any of their last three home games against Portugal
Both teams have scored in just two of the last seven meetings

Portugal News and Form

Portugal have a little bit of form behind them, having won their last three games and they are in pole position to win this Nations League group. They only need to get a point out of this to secure that. Portugal have suffered just the one defeat in their last eleven games so have proven to be a very difficult side to beat. The loss in that sequence was against Uruguay back at the 2018 World Cup in the round of sixteen. Cristiano Ronaldo has not appeared in any Nations League game yet for them. Despite that, the reigning European champions have come up with exactly three goals in their last two games. Both teams to score is at even money odds* (betting odds taken on November 13th, 2018 at 4:05 pm)

Portugal have scored in each of their last nine games so have that positive streak going for them. Defensively they have conceded in four of their last five games though, the only clean sheet in that sequence coming in their Nations League 1-0 win over Italy. Over 2.5 goals is at 11/8 odds* (betting odds taken on November 13th, 2018 at 4:05 pm) which is worth a look as Italy actually have to come out and push for the victory. Portugal took a 3-2 win out in Poland in their one away game in the group so far.

Who will win – Italy v Portugal Predictions

The draw has the most appeal out of the match outright options and that is because of the situation that Portugal find themselves in. Portugal have some decent enough form behind them and they look strong and organised enough to go and earn themselves a point against an Italy side still trying to find themselves.

The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+

* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!

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