Great Expectations: How Result-Based Realism is the Key to Your Betting Goals28th February 2019 / Julian
We all make resolutions coming into the New Year and some of them stick around for longer than others. Perhaps you weren’t exercising enough last year? Perhaps you weren’t travelling enough? perhaps you weren’t making enough money from your sports betting?
If 2016 was the year of huge odds and massive winnings, then 2017 is the year of result-based realism. In other words, it’s time to forget about Leicester winning the Premier League at pre-season odds of 5000/1 and it’s time to back a sensible and consistent long-term betting strategy
The win is the thing
Whether you want to build a business empire, attain the body of a chiselled greek god, or simply increase your luck at the bookies, an integral part of the drive to be successful is to have it all and to have it now. If we didn’t have ambitions or set targets then there wouldn’t be any point in doing it in the first place.
However, this approach is often a big no-no when it comes to actually implementing success, especially in betting when there is money at stake. Patience and persistence are often the key when achieving your goals in fitness and business, so why not use this tactic when you make your bets? As the old mantra goes: “slow and steady wins the race”.
Of course, little gains won with odds-on bets doesn’t offer the thrill and suspense of backing an underdog for bigger wins. But then again, what’s more thrilling in the long-run, losing money or building a healthy profit over time?
Don’t shoot too high
How many times have you instantly overlooked a almost certain winner whilst browsing an online sportsbook? They may be odds-on favourites, but they’re still going to return a profit in the likelihood that they win the bet. And profit, after all, is what we want to see in the long term.
Many people approach sports betting with a bit of a whimsical view. Be it down to lack of experience or just laziness, beginner bettors and casual punters don’t really know what they’re doing when it comes to betting on sports (or they don’t take the time to find out). So, they naturally revert to what is fun and exciting – splashing the odd quid or two on a no-hoper in the Grand National or racking up a ridiculously long accumulator bet on the weekend’s football. The simple fact being that bigger “potential returns” in the betslip clouds the judgement, easily overriding the risk of a low stake that is placed on the high odds.
Even more experienced bettors can be short-sighted by the desire to win big. They might try to lengthen odds and increase potential returns by using an Asian handicap in football matches, or they might make a tennis bet more lucrative by going down the set betting road. All the while, they are increasing their chance of losing money when a standard match result wager would be the much safer option.
Build a bank roll
Result-based realism in betting may sound a bit dull, but it doesn’t need to be. In fact, there are a number of strategies that can be implemented to keep things interesting and, more importantly, help you keep your eyes on the ultimate prize – profit.
There is no getting around the fact that this type of betting requires punters to be patient, persistent and consistent over a long period of time. A good way to structure your betting would be to build a bankroll. In short, this would require the player to follow these steps:
- Set an amount of money aside into a dedicated bank account for betting: how much is completely up to you but larger starting sums make for larger potential profits.
- Choose whether to use a level stake plan or a percentage stake plan: the latter allows for exponential growth going forward.
- Choose a range of odds to stick to: preferably no higher than even odds (1/1) since we are focusing on ensuring likely wins.
- Choose a percentage of your bankroll to stake: this tends to range from 1 – 5 % but as we are focusing on shorter odds we can afford to go to the higher end of the range.
In theory, a bankroll such as this is a sure-fire way to grow profit when betting (emphasis on ‘in theory”!). Since the implied probability of even odds are 50% and anything shorter than even odds is technically more than 50% likely to happen, punters are theoretically set to win more than they lose.
Of course, probability in sports betting isn’t a guaranteed thing. The unthinkable can and sometimes will happen, and punters need to do their research while utilising their instinct to know when to stay away from potential upsets. Having said that, don’t let a lost bet deter you when building a bankroll structured of result-based realism. And whatever you do, don’t overcompensate for a loss by erring towards higher odds or larger stakes.
Find the value
Formulating a betting plan is just the beginning of achieving your result-based realism goals. Punters often aim to maximise profit by aiming at more unlikely results or by adding an extra leg on to their accumulator, which always leads to more risk. What if we told you there was a way to maximise profit without increasing the inherent risk in the bet?
Value betting is something which all bettors should use if they are serious about making long-term profit. This method requires players use their own judgements to evaluate the probability of a bet, that way they can compare their self-formulated chance of success against the implied probability of the odds on the market. And you don’t have to rely on mere guesswork as there are ways to use statistics and data to mathematically devise the probability of sporting events – read more with our Poisson distribution article.
Bettors should also be savvy by shopping around for the best odds on the market in order to get the highest returns on their bucks. This does potentially mean signing up with multiple online sportsbooks but bettors can use oddschecker.com to scout out the options before filling out hundreds of sign-up forms.
Better the devil you know
Result-based realism all boils down to structure and value, which, in turn require a lot of dedication and knowledge. As such, we would highly recommend that players stick to what they know. Sure, online sports betting has opened up all sorts of wonderful markets in leagues and competitions across the globe, but what’s the point in wasting money on something you have no real interest in or knowledge about.
Sticking to your favourite sports will not only ensure that you don’t get bored when building a bankroll on the slow-burner, but it will also mean that you can better assess the value in the bet.
That said, it does pay if you are swatted up on more obscure sports markets. It is often difficult to find good value in popular sports betting markets such as Premier League football and Men’s Tennis – the marketplace is so saturated that there is little room for fluctuation in odds. So, if you happen to follow the lower leagues of the English Football League, use your knowledge to your advantage. If you know your doosras from your yorkers then you will be able to make the most of the cricket betting markets. And if you know the ins and outs of a snooker player’s psychology in the heat of the Crucible, then why not stick to snooker?
The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+
* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!
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