Champions League 2018 Round of 16 – Predictions & Betting Odds12th December 2017 / lee
Five Premier League sides made it through to the round of sixteen in the UEFA Champions League, which is the first time that that amount of teams from one nation has successfully made it through to that stage of the competition. But which one of those will be marching through to the quarter finals? Manchester City are the new Champions League outright favourites having been trimmed to 3/1 at Bwin to get their hands on the title for the first time, while in contrast, Chelsea received one of the worst draws that they could have gotten as they have to take on the might of Barcelona in the round of sixteen.
We look ahead to the Champions League Round of Sixteen where generally favouritism rests on the sides who have gone through as group winners (teams playing the second leg at home). Because group stage winners have progressed in 72.3% of round of 16 ties since the current competition format was introduced.
Juventus v Tottenham (13 February and 7 March)
Tottenham got themselves a tough draw but they won’t have anything to fear really after having taken down Real Madrid comfortably in the group stage of the competition. The Lilywhites will have plenty of belief as the Old Lady haven’t quite looked like their defensively brilliant selves this season. Still, this will be a real test for the Lilywhites and they are the 6/5 underdogs at Bwin to qualify from the tie which will probably tempt some punters. That first leg out on the road is going to be all important, the Lilywhites have to hang in there.
Basel v Manchester City (13 February and 7 March)
Manchester City landed a fantastic draw for themselves as they go up against FC Basel from Switzerland. That draw has seen Pep Guardiola’s men move into the position of outright favourites to win the tournament now, that and along with how the rest of the draw has panned out. Manchester City and Basel have never met before competitively, but Basel went up against Manchester United in the group stage this season and lost at Old Trafford heavily before taking a win back on home soil against the Red Devils. Still, they are tournament outsiders now because of this draw and are 7/1 underdogs to qualify with City at 1/12 odds on.
Porto v Liverpool (14 February and 6 March)
These two have met before as they were paired up in the 2000/01 UEFA Cup quarter finals and then again in the Champions League 2007/08 group stage. Liverpool have won both of their home games against the Portuguese side while drawing both of the games out on the road against them. Porto were in England last season as they hammered Leicester on match day six of the group stage, with the Foxes having already qualified at that point. The superior quality of the Reds, who did make hard work of their group stage it has to be said, are 2/5 odds on at Bwin to get through.
Sevilla v Manchester United (21 February and 13 March)
The Red Devils won’t be too unhappy with this draw but it is a bit of a tricky one really. Sevilla were up against Liverpool in the group stage and the Spaniards played out two draws with the Premier League side. This is a clash between the two most recent winners of the UEFA Europa League, with the Spaniards winning it three times on the trot between 2013/14 and 2015/16 before United rolled up and took it last season. Sevilla are a tough side on home soil and they will make United work, but the Red Devils are 2/5 odds on favourites to qualify from the tie.
Real Madrid v PSG (14 February and 6 March)
What a duel this should be. Reigning champions Real Madrid get a really tough draw after having failed to win their group over Tottenham. Real Madrid just haven’t looked themselves this season on any front and with PSG having already received plenty of backing to go all the way in the Champions League this season, Madrid will be under threat here and they are even money underdogs to qualify. PSG invested heavily in the summer to propel themselves to the next level in Europe and this will be a great litmus test for them. PSG are 4/5 odds on favourites at William Hill To Qualify and it is hard to argue with that.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma (21 February and 13 March)
This is the tie that will be flying totally under the radar of most people, but for both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma they will be happy enough in facing each other. That is because there were much tougher tests that could have come out of the hat for them. The Ukrainians are a very good side on home soil and they are here after finishing second behind Manchester City, who they beat on match day six and this could even be an evenly matched contest. The Ukrainians are 7/4 at William Hill to qualify, with Roma at 4/9, so the underdogs are going to have appeal as they did beat Man City in the group stage. Roma held off Chelsea to win their group and are favourites to progress.
Chelsea v Barcelona (20 February and 14 March)
Chelsea were really running the risk of getting a horrid draw and it happened. With five Premier League teams getting through, and Chelsea not being able to face anyone from their group, there was a massive chance that they were going to have it rough in the round of sixteen. But Chelsea are 4-3 up in the head to head against Barcelona from previous European meetings and they beat them in the 2012 semi finals on their way to winning the title. They beat Barcelona 5-4 in the 2004/05 round of sixteen as well. Lionel Messi has incidentally never scored in eight previous appearances against Chelsea but still, the Catalans have been in great form this season and are 3/10 odds on favourites To Qualify, with Chelsea 5/2 underdogs at William Hill.
Bayern Munich v Besiktas (20 February and 14 March)
Bayern Munich avoided any real trouble in the round of sixteen with this tie. The Germans only finished second in their group behind PSG so dodged a bit of a bullet here as they take on Besiktas who were one of the surprise group winners getting through. Thee two have met before back in the 1997/98 group stage with Bayern winning both of those ties by a 2-0 scoreline. Their powerful response against PSG on match day six shows that you can’t write Bayern off.
Champions League Winner Odds
Manchester City 3/1, Bayern Munich 9/2, Paris St Germain 5/1, Barcelona 15/2, Real Madrid 8/1, Manchester United 14/1, Liverpool 16/1, Juventus 16/1, Tottenham 25/1, Chelsea 33/1, Roma 33/1, bar 100/1
Champions League Winner Odds price changes
Because of the Shakhtar v Roam tie, both of those received a pretty good positive odds shift in teh outright winner market after the draw. Shakhtar actually took the biggest price cut of all teams going through to the round of sixteen. Manchester City were priced up at 5/1 to win the Champions League before the draw, but after getting Basel, they have been cut down to 3/1 while Liverpool took an even bigger cut coming in from 25/1 to 16/1 thanks to their draw against Porto. Naturally, the odds on PSG and Real Madrid drifted because of their coming together, while the English side who got the biggest odds drift, was Chelsea who went from 22/1 to 33/1, while Spurs did go on the drift as well.
The tip is based on the personal opinion of the author. No success is guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly. 18+
* All mentioned odds were valid at the time of writing. Betting odds are subject to fluctuations. Please check the current odds with the respective bookmaker!
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