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Barcelona v Bayern Munich Prediction 1st May 2013

26th April 2013 / lee
UEFA Champions League Betting

Barcelona v Bayern Munich Betting Preview
The Blaugrana are favourites to win the second leg back in Spain f this Champions League semi final, but can they do it by a big enough margin to progress? That is a totally different story as they have to find a way to overturn a 4-0 deficit. They haven’t lost a home match in Europe for the last four years and have good form against German sides. They have to perform after getting overwhelmed by the pace and power of Bayern Munich in the first leg. Barcelona don’t look to be in the greatest stretch of form in Europe, and may have handed their supremacy over to the Germans. But they have rescued what was looking like a dire situation of a first leg away defeat in the Champions League this season. But even for the mighty Barcelona, is overcoming a four goal deficit too much to handle?

Barcelona v Bayern Munich Betting Odds at online bookmaker Ladbrokes
Barcelona 17/20, Bayern Munich 11/4, Draw 11/4

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Barcelona v Bayern Munich Recommended Bet:
Make no mistake about it, Barcelona aren’t in the greatest European form of their lives. Somehow they have to dig deeper than ever to produce a miracle. They have only won one of their last seven competitive matches against Bayern Munich, and on top of that, they have actually only managed one win in their last six Champions League matches this season. Lionel Messi looked well short of fitness in the first leg and wasn’t able to influence the game at all, and that left Barcelona wanting. They couldn’t cope as a unit with the flair and clinical power that Bayern Munich have in their ranks, and the Barcelona defence looked very shaky against pace.

However, Barcelona do hold a four year unbeaten home record in Europe, and they scored a 4-0 win over AC Milan in the round of sixteen. That saw them overcome a 2-0 deficit from the away defeat in Italy, but this is a whole different kettle of fish, with Bayern being so strong. Barcelona are looking for their third Wembley final, but it isn’t looking all that promising for them. The 4-0 loss in the first leg, was their heaviest ever UEFA competition away result. The last time they met was in the quarter finals of the 2008/09 Champions League season, and it was Barcelona who romped to a 4-0 win at home in the first leg, before drawing in Germany. The shoe looks to be on the other foot here.

However, some promise for Barcelona is that they have won their ten home matches in a row against German visitors, and overall hold an impressive W19 D1 L6 record at home. Their last three home matches against Bundesliga sides have all been won by a four goal margin or greater, so that will tempt some punters to having a bet on Barcelona getting through. The last time they hosted a German side, Lionel Messi got on the scoresheet five times in a 7-1 thumping of Bayer Leverkusen. With them holding an unbeaten run of 21 Champions League matches at the Nou Camp, everyone knows that they have it in them to produce something special. Without a fully fit Lionel Messi though, it may be far too big of an ask this time around. Form just isn’t with them, as in Champions League knockout matches, Barcelona have won just one of their last seven.

Bayern Munich hold just a W5 D5 L10 record in Spain and when they won at Villarreal in last season’s group stage, they recorded their first win in the country since 2001. This is only the second semi final meeting in Europe between Bayern Munich and Barcelona, and on that previous occasion, the 1995/96 UEFA Cup, Bayern won 4-3 on aggregate. Bayern, last season’s losing finalists, are looking for their third Champions League final in four seasons and are claiming dominance to be the best side in Europe. They are the top scorers in the competition and Barcelona have to try and find a way to contain them so as not to concede an away goal. But Bayern are just looking hot at the moment, winning their last three Champions League matches to nil. Bayern’s record against Spanish opponents in two legged UEFA ties stands at W8 L6. A four goal lead is massive and that should be plenty of breathing space, no matter how well Barcelona turn up and play on the night.

Barcelona simply need to stamp their authority on the match right from the off and get quick goals. Would back a Barcelona win on the night at odds of 17/20 with online bookmaker Ladbrokes, given how immense they are at home. But not to quality.

Stat Attack
No team has ever overturned a 4-0 deficit after the first leg of a Champions League knockout game
Barcelona have only won one of their seven matches against Bayern Munich
Barcelona have only won one of their last six Champions League games
Bayern Munich have won their last three Champions League matches to nil

 


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